TAIPEI, TAIWAN — As Laos hosts this year’s summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Beijing is calling for additions to its free-trade agreement with the regional forum that focus on smart cities, 5G, artificial intelligence and e-commerce.

Ahead of the ASEAN summit, which began Sunday and ends Friday, Chinese state media have stepped up efforts to promote the benefits of what they call an upgrade to the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, or CAFTA, agreement.

Analysts point out that the two sides have not reached agreement on what’s being called “CAFTA 3.0,” and that it remains to be seen whether including China’s electric vehicles and e-commerce would benefit Southeast Asian industries that are struggling to compete with their Chinese counterparts.

“The establishment of a free-trade demonstration zone is actually nothing more than the hope that things can be sold into China,” Ming-Fang Tsai, a professor in the Department of Industrial Economics at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, told VOA.

However, he said the Chinese market is facing a lack of domestic demand and overproduction, leading to price competition.

“So, is the FTA 3.0 really an upgrade? Actually, it is a big question mark,” he said by email.

Nevertheless, some specific areas in the 3.0 agreement still attract the attention of experts, including its focus on the EV industry.

Although ASEAN is also actively developing an EV industry, He Jiangbing, a China-based economist and finance commentator, told VOA if China’s major EV manufacturers pour into Southeast Asia through changes in the agreement, it would likely have a huge impact on the local automobile industries.

“China’s mainland started relatively early in new-energy vehicles and has developed rapidly for 10 years. But the automotive industry in ASEAN is relatively weak. If China’s new-energy vehicles are sold in ASEAN, it will be difficult for Southeast Asian [traditional] car companies to resist,” He said.

Southeast Asia’s own automobile industry will be greatly affected or cease to exist, He said.

But Lu Xi, a senior lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, told VOA that most of China’s EVs are not getting into Southeast Asia through exports but through production-line transfer, similar to joint ventures, so a price war should not cause a negative impact.

“With the transfer of [China’s EV] manufacturing industry chain, the economic structure of Southeast Asia will undergo a huge transformation,” Lu said by email. “Depending on the current political and economic situation between China and the US, Southeast Asia itself also has a very broad local market and a very good young population structure, so on the whole, the Southeast Asian market should be one of the important engines of economic growth in the whole region in the future.”

Tsai noted that Chinese manufacturers will set up factories in Southeast Asia to avoid the “Made in China” label and restrictions on Chinese products.

“U.S. controls on technology may affect the components of EVs in the future,” he said, “which brings great pressure to Chinese manufacturers.”

In addition to EVs, the 3.0 agreement also focuses on smart cities, 5G, artificial intelligence and e-commerce.

Analysts say China’s e-commerce is already having a negative impact on the region as orders of cheaper Chinese imports and knockoffs are flooding Southeast Asia. Half of the ceramic factories in Thailand’s northern Lampang province have closed, and Indonesian textile workers are facing mass layoffs, the South China Morning Post and the Bangkok Post reported.

“In the face of the massive entry of the [Chinese] e-commerce, frankly speaking, these Southeast Asian countries are relatively uncompetitive,” said Tsai. “Because first, [they] will not be able to compete with China in marketing and sales. Second, [China’s] own products are cheaper.

“If my entire e-commerce system is better than yours,” Tsai said, “and my products are not more expensive than yours, then how can you compete with me?”

Nonetheless, in a September speech for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, in Nanning, China, ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn called on businesses to take full advantage of the partnership as they move toward the changes.

He touted the RCEP, the world’s largest trade bloc, covering nearly 30% of global gross domestic product at $29 trillion and 2.3 billion people across the Asia Pacific region.

“ASEAN’s multidirectional economic relations have been a major driver behind the use of RCEP,” said Hourn, according to a written statement. “China, for example, has remained ASEAN’s largest trading partner for the past 15 years and has also climbed from the 5th largest source of FDI to ASEAN in 2022 to the 3rd largest in 2023. With both RCEP and ACFTA 3.0 in place, I am confident that trade and investment between ASEAN, China, and the rest of the RCEP partners will continue to flourish for the benefit of the people in this wider region.”

ASEAN calls the free-trade agreement ACFTA; Beijing refers to it as CAFTA.

The agreement was established by China and ASEAN in 2009, and the ASEAN-China Summit announced the launch of negotiations for the changes in November 2022.

VOA’s Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Beijing/Paris — China imposed temporary anti-dumping measures on imports of brandy from the EU on Tuesday, hitting French brands including Hennessy and Remy Martin, days after the 27-state bloc voted for tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, or EVs.

China’s commerce ministry said preliminary findings of an investigation had determined that dumping of brandy from the European Union threatens “substantial damage” to its own sector.

France’s trade ministry said the temporary Chinese measures were “incomprehensible” and violated free trade, and that it would work with the European Commission to challenge the move at the World Trade Organization.

In a sign of the rising trade tensions, China’s ministry added in another statement on Tuesday that an ongoing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into EU pork products would make “objective and fair” decisions when it concludes.

It also said that it was considering a hike in tariffs on imports of large-engine vehicles, which would hit German producers hardest. German exports of vehicles with engines of 2.5 liters or larger to China reached $1.2 billion last year.

France was seen as the target of Beijing’s brandy probe due to its support of tariffs on China-made EVs. French brandy shipments to China reached $1.7 billion last year and accounted for 99% of the country’s imports of the spirit.

As of Oct. 11, importers of brandy originating in the EU will have to put down security deposits mostly ranging from 34.8% to 39.0% of the import value, the ministry said.

“This announcement clearly shows that China is determined to tax us in response to European decisions on Chinese electric vehicles,” French cognac producers group BNIC said in an email.

French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that China’s brandy probe was “pure retaliation,” while EV tariffs were needed to preserve a level playing field.

Shares tumble

LVMH-owned Hennessy and Remy Martin were among the brands hardest hit by the measures, with importers having to pay security deposits of 39.0% and 38.1%, respectively.

The deposits would make it more costly upfront to import brandy from the EU. However they could be returned if a deal is eventually reached before definitive tariffs are imposed.

Both the investigation and negotiations remain ongoing, said an executive at a leading cognac company, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Chinese investigators visited producers in France last month and were due to make further site visits, the executive said, while Chinese and EU officials held negotiations on Monday.

The outcome was unclear, however, and doubts around the EU’s willingness to make a deal were emerging, they added.

Shares in Pernod Ricard were down 4.2% at 0839 GMT, while Remy Cointreau’s dropped 8.7% and shares in LVMH fell 4.9%.

Companies that cooperated with China’s investigation were hit with security deposit rates of 34.8%, with that imposed on Martell the lowest at 30.6%.

Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and LVMH did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The measures could mean a 20% price rise for consumers in China, said Jefferies analysts, reducing sales volumes by 20%.

Remy, with the greatest exposure to the Chinese market, could see its sales decline by 6%, with Pernod group sales seeing a 1.6% impact, they said.

China is the second largest export market for cognac after the United States but is the industry’s most profitable territory. Difficult economic conditions in both markets have already prompted a sharp decline in cognac sales.

James Sym, fund manager at Remy investor River Global, said despite this, there was no sign that demand for cognac had fundamentally changed, pointing to an uptick in cognac sales in Japan driven by Chinese tourists when the yen was weak.

“That’s obviously a sign that cognac is not out of fashion,” he said, adding volumes – and the companies’ share prices – should recover long-term, although the tariffs would likely hit volumes and margins while in place.

Talks continue

Luxury goods shares fell by as much as 7% on Tuesday, with one trader attributing this to fears that the sector, which is heavily reliant on China, could be next to see trade measures.

The brandy measures follow a vote by the EU to adopt tariffs on China-made EVs by the end of October.

Before the vote in late August, China had suspended its planned anti-dumping measures on EU brandy, in an apparent goodwill gesture, despite determining it had been sold in China at below-market prices.

At the time, the commerce ministry said its probe would end before Jan. 5, 2025, but that it could be extended.

China’s commerce ministry previously said it had found that European distillers had been selling brandy in its 1.4 billion-strong consumer market at a dumping margin in the range of 30.6% to 39% and that its domestic industry had been damaged.

In the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on China-made EVs, the bloc set tariff rates on top of the 10% car import duty ranging from 7.8% for Tesla to 35.3% for SAIC and other producers deemed not to have cooperated with its investigation.

The European Commission has said it is willing to continue negotiating an alternative, even after tariffs are imposed.
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LISBON — Chinese lithium producers are flooding the global market with the critical metal and causing a “predatory” price drop as they seek to eliminate competing projects, a senior U.S. official said on a visit to Portugal that has ample lithium reserves.

Jose Fernandez, undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment at the U.S. Department of State, told a briefing late on Monday that China was producing much more lithium “than the world needs today, by far.”

“That is an intentional response by the People’s Republic of China to what we are trying to do” with the Inflation Reduction Act – the largest climate and energy investment package in U.S. history valued at over $400 billion, Fernandez said.

“They engage in predatory pricing… [they] lower the price until competition disappears,’’ Fernandez said. ‘’That is what is happening.”

China accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s lithium chemical output, which is mainly used in battery technologies including for electric cars. Prices of lithium have fallen more than 80% in the past year largely due to overproduction from China and a drop in demand for electric vehicles.

However, the price collapse is also affecting China as it has forced Chinese companies like battery giant CATL to suspend production at certain mines.

Job cuts

Europe aims to reduce its dependence on imports from China and other countries of lithium and other materials essential to the green transition.

Fernandez said the low price “constrains our ability to diversify our supply chains on a broad, global scale” and also hurts countries such as Portugal that need investment to develop these industries.

Falling prices have forced many global lithium producers to scale back production and cut jobs.

Portugal, with some 60,000 tons of known reserves, is already Europe’s biggest producer of lithium, traditionally mined for ceramics.

Along with neighboring Spain, the country wants to take advantage of local lithium deposits, aiming to cover the entire value chain from mining and refining to cell and battery manufacturing to battery recycling.

Several mining companies in Portugal have been looking for financing, customers and suppliers to crank up projects.

“We want to help them, and we think we can… lithium mining companies, everywhere, have to survive this difficult phase that was created by predatory pricing,” Fernandez said.

China’s Premier Li Qiang in June used his address at a World Economic Forum meeting in Dalian to hit back at accusations from the United States and E.U. that Chinese firms benefit from unfair subsidies and are poised to flood their markets with cheap green technologies.

Trade tensions intensified last Friday when the European Union said it would press ahead with hefty tariffs on China-made electric vehicles to counter what it sees as unfair Chinese subsidies, after a year-long anti-subsidy investigation. China on Tuesday imposed temporary anti-dumping measures on imports of brandy from the E.U.
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