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Month: November 2022

Hong Kong Hopes Summit of Business Leaders Signals Comeback as Financial Hub

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International and regional business leaders from more than 100 financial institutions ended a three-day summit in Hong Kong Thursday that was widely seen as a signal that the territory is back in business after recently lifting some of the world’s toughest COVID-19 restrictions. 

Hosted by the city’s de facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the gathering of more than 200 financial heavyweights was the largest the city has seen in almost three years.

Consistently ranked as the world’s third-leading financial center behind New York and London, Hong Kong has taken a beating from social unrest, its self-imposed COVID-19 isolation and reputational damage due to a crackdown on dissent. Now, it is hoping to make a comeback.

“We were, we are, and we will remain one of the world’s leading financial centers. And you can take that to the bank,” Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee told the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit this week.

Controversy

Some U.S. lawmakers, among them Representatives Chris Smith, a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Blaine Luetkemeyer, and Lance Gooden, asked executives of major banks to reconsider attending the conference, saying their presence would legitimize China’s clampdown on the city.

Four top executives did not show up for the summit. Capital Group Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Timothy Armour cited health reasons. Blackstone Inc. President Jonathan Gray and Citigroup Inc. CEO Jane Fraser tested positive for COVID, and Barclays Plc. Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan canceled citing a scheduling conflict.

Most of the other participants, including the chairmen of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group, came, with some expressing confidence in Hong Kong.

China passed the National Security Law in 2020 in response to 2019’s widespread, often disruptive and sometimes violent protests in Hong Kong against a bill aimed at extraditing economic criminals to the mainland. Since the law’s passage, media outlets supportive of the protesters have shut down, and some of their staff, as well as protesters and others, have been arrested on charges of secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces.

The arrests have raised concerns the city is being controlled by Beijing, but Lee and the government have insisted that the One Country, Two Systems formula under which the former British colony is supposed to be governed since it returned to Chinese rule in 1997, is still adhered to.

Lee said in his speech that “the worst is behind us.” He said Hong Kong has restored stability and touted the city’s uniqueness: its proximity and seamless connection with the mainland “that affords Hong Kong advantages available to no other economy.”

Lee also pointed to government policies aimed at boosting Hong Kong’s competitiveness, including a plan to use fiscal reserves to steer economic development, a $3.8 billion fund to attract businesses by co-investing in them, and a plan to lure talent, including by giving visas to graduates from the world’s top 100 universities.

On the comeback trail?

Experts say it must do more or risk being eclipsed by Singapore.

They say that first, the government should drop all COVID-19 restrictions, including the current 0+3 policy, which no longer requires hotel quarantine but still expects visitors to avoid restaurants for the first three days after arriving. If they test positive, they must be quarantined for seven days.

“When I talk to key financial markets, Singapore, the U.K., the U.S., they’ve already gotten rid of all these requirements. Hong Kong is sort of an outlier,” said Sally Wong, chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Investment Funds Association.

“While we are claiming ourselves to be a super connector, connecting to China and to the rest of the world, we cannot live up to this reputation,” she said.

A survey conducted in July by her association found 35% of its responding member fund management companies have moved some or all of their regional or global posts from Hong Kong to other offices, partly due to the COVID-19 policies.

China also needs to allow Hong Kong residents to enter the mainland without having to quarantine, analysts said.

“Hong Kong cannot come back independent from China; it’s not possible. Its business comes from China,” said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist. “The real start is when China exits ‘zero-COVID,’ then we can talk about something else.”

Although there are many cross-border setups aimed at enabling investors in mainland China to invest in overseas markets through Hong Kong, and vice versa, stringent requirements need to be eased to make these services a reality, Wong said.

“Right now, the key investments in the mainland are the stock market and property market; the choice of investments are very limited and domestically oriented. With the growth of the middle class, there’s an increasing need to conduct diversified portfolios,” Wong said. “Hong Kong is definitely a key gateway to tap this potential.”

Despite the departure of about 1.5% of Hong Kong’s population, 98.5% of its people are staying, and the city continues to see mainland Chinese people and young professionals from elsewhere moving to Hong Kong.

Watching TV news reports about the summit, Hong Kong hair stylist Fang Du said holding the conference is a good idea, but the worst might not be over for Hong Kong. The territory saw three consecutive quarters of negative growth this year, with the economy shrinking 4.5% in the third quarter. Like many residents, she’s hoping Hong Kong’s situation will improve soon.

“Everyone wants their country to do better. … I’m confident in Hong Kong’s future,” Du said.

Combining business with entertainment, the Hong Kong Sevens, a annual international rugby tournament, opened this Friday, the first time since COVID hit.

While encouraging the financial executives to enjoy the Sevens, Lee made a final push for the goal post with his message to them. 

“Opportunity and timing, right here, right now in Hong Kong,” Lee said. “This is the moment you have been waiting for. Go for it. Get in front, not behind.”

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US Employers Keep Hiring at Solid Pace, Adding 261,000 Jobs

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America’s employers kept hiring briskly in October, adding a substantial 261,000 positions, a sign that as Election Day nears, the economy remains a picture of solid job growth and painful inflation.

Friday’s government report showed that last month’s hiring remained near the robust pace it has maintained in the two-plus years since the pandemic recession ended. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a five-decade low of 3.5%.

A strong job market is deepening the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s to try to bring inflation down from near a 40-hear high. Steady hiring, solid pay growth and a low unemployment rate have been good for workers. But they have also contributed to rising prices.

The October jobs figures were the last major economic report before Election Day, with voters keenly focused on the state of the economy and on their own financial lives.

Chronic inflation is hammering the budgets of many households and has shot to the top of voter concerns in the midterm congressional elections that will end Tuesday. Republican candidates across the country have attacked Democrats over inflation in their drive to regain control of Congress.

All the jobs that employers have added since the recession ended have boosted the ability of consumers to keep spending, even amid high inflation. A labor shortage in many areas of the economy also compelled businesses to pay more to attract and keep workers.

President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have pointed to the vigorous resurgence in hiring as evidence that their policies have helped get Americans back to work faster than the nation managed to do after previous downturns. But that message has been overtaken in the midterm political campaigns by the crushing surge of inflation, which has soured many Americans on the economy under Democratic leadership in Congress and the White House.

Signs are growing that the economy has begun to flag under the weight of much higher borrowing costs engineered by the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Especially in industries like housing and technology, hiring has waned. Some tech companies, like the ride-hailing firm Lyft and the payment company Stripe. have announced plans to lay off workers. Amazon said Thursday it would suspend its corporate hiring.

Still, despite such high-profile announcements, the pace of layoffs across the broader economy remains unusually low. And companies in travel, restaurants, manufacturing and health care are still hiring steadily. Southwest Airlines told investors last week that it was on track to hire 10,000 employees this year, including 1,200 pilots. Laboratory Corporation of America said it plans significant hiring.

At a news conference Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the strong job market is feeding inflationary pressures as businesses continue to raise pay. In September, average wages rose more than 6% from 12 months earlier, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That was the fastest such pace in 40 years, though it still trailed inflation.

Wages tend to follow inflation higher as workers seek to keep up with price increases. Those pay raises, in turn, can keep inflation high if companies pass on at least part of their higher labor costs to their customers in the form of higher prices.

Powell spoke after the Fed announced a fourth straight three-quarter-point increase in its benchmark rate. It was the latest in a series of unusually large hikes that have made mortgages and other consumer and business loans increasingly costly and heightened the risk of a recession.

The Fed’s policymakers did open the door to the possibility of a smaller rate hike when they next meet in December. But Powell also said that in order to tame inflation, the Fed would likely have to raise rates high enough to weaken the job market. That could mean that hiring will slow in coming months or even that many employers will cut jobs and increase the unemployment rate.

So far this year, the Fed has raised its key short-term rate six times — from near zero in early March to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the highest level in 14 years.

Housing has, so far, absorbed the worst damage from higher borrowing costs. The Fed’s rate hikes have sent average long-term mortgage rates surging to around 7%, the highest level in two decades. Home sales have cratered as a result, and once-soaring home prices have started to slow.

For now, the economy is still growing. It expanded at a 2.6% annual rate in the July-September quarter after having contracted in the first six months of the year. But much of last quarter’s growth was due to a spike in U.S. exports. By contrast, consumers — the primary driver of the economy — only modestly increased their spending beyond the rate of inflation.

With inflation still painfully high and the Fed making borrowing increasingly expensive for consumers and businesses, most economists expect a recession by early next year.

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Nigeria’s Currency at Record Lows as Citizens React to Government’s Redesign Plan

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Nigeria’s currency, the naira, has dropped to a record low against the U.S. dollar as Nigerians scramble to buy U.S. currency ahead of a redesign of naira notes. Nigerian authorities say replacing the notes will reduce inflation, combat counterfeiting and bring more money into circulation. But security and economic experts warn the move could damage Nigeria’s economy. 

It’s been just over a week since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced its plan to redesign the country’s highest paper denominations – the 200-, 500- and 1,000-naira notes.

Tijani Salisu, a black-market dealer of foreign currencies, said the demand for U.S. dollars has jumped since the announcement. On Thursday, the naira traded at 860 to the dollar, nearly double the official bank rate. 

“People are coming with the naira to buy dollars and keep because of this situation,” Salisu said. “And if you go to the bank to withdraw dollars, you can’t find dollars in the bank.”

The new naira notes will begin circulating in mid-December, and the old notes will cease to be legal tender by the end of January, according to the CBN.

The central bank says the move will put more money in circulation. Currently, an estimated 85% of all money in Nigeria is stashed away in homes, outside the banking system.

The CBN also says the new notes will help authorities curb fake currencies in circulation and keep criminals in check.

Experts fault the timing of the decision. Economist and head of the Center for Social Justice, Eze Onyekpere, said with the holiday season and elections set for next year, the decision could harm Nigeria’s economy.

“This intervention is very wrongly timed, and it appears to address a challenge for which it cannot provide a solution,” he said. “We’re discussing 15th December which is very close to the festive season of Christmas and new year and the height of commerce. It’s not a particularly good period where you start asking people to pay in their money. Normally this should take between three to six months; there’s no need to stampede people.”

Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned authorities to be cautious and not allow the decision to affect the confidence citizens have in the local currency and financial institutions. 

Mike Ejiofor, a former director of the Department of State Services, said the redesigning of the currency can do the country much good, even though there might be initial hurdles to cross.

“For me, I think it’s a welcome development and the timing for me is most appropriate,” he said. “Don’t also forget that some kidnappers have monies stashed in their houses. It will also help the regulatory agencies, security agencies monitor inflow and outflow of cash. If these monies are withdrawn, the tendencies of politicians to go and buy votes will not be there. It will make the naira appreciate.”

Exchanging the old tender for the new will be especially hard for Nigerians in rural areas who do not have easy access to banking services. Experts say that unless the CBN changes its timetable, more than 40% of Nigerians could lose their life savings when the old notes expire early next year.

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Швейцарія заборонила Німеччині надати Україні боєприпаси свого виробництва через «нейтралітет»  

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Швейцарія не може погодитися на передачу Україні військових матеріалів «доки остання бере участь у міжнародному збройному конфлікті»

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Categories: Новини, Світ

Центр національного спротиву назвав два основні шляхи постачання Іраном дронів для Росії

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Як додають у ЦНС, наразі Іран використовує для виробництва дронів заводи у Сирії та Таджикистані, а також «є ризики налагодження вузлової збірки» БПЛА у Білорусі

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Categories: Новини, Світ

Сім суден з українським продовольством вийшли з Чорноморських портів 3 листопада – Мінінфраструктури

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За даними міністерства, від 1 серпня 430 суден експортували 10 мільйонів тонн українського продовольства до 43 країн Африки, Азії та Європи

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Росія отримала щонайменше 100 танків і БМП зі складів Білорусі в останні тижні – британська розвідка

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«У середині жовтня під час наступу українських військ втрати російської бронетехніки зросли до понад 40 одиниць на день, що приблизно дорівнює кількості техніки батальйону»

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Categories: Новини, Світ