This holiday season promises to be an extraordinary one. Experts say supply chain issues, the pandemic, inflation and online sales will impact holiday shopping. Maxim Moskalkov has the story. VOA video by Anatolie Casenco.
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A Sydney restaurant is using a Chinese-made, multi-lingual hospitality robot to address chronic staff shortages as Australia’s economy begins to recover from COVID-19 lockdowns and border closures. 

The robot waiter is programmed to know the layout of the tables and delivers food from the kitchen. It is also multi-lingual, programmed to communicate in English and Mandarin. The so-called BellaBot is built by the Chinese firm PuduTech. 

Each machine costs about $17,000. They can be leased for $34 per day for each device, or the equivalent of two hours’ wages for restaurant staff. The devices are in use in other Australian restaurants and imports into Australia appear to be unaffected by recent trade tensions between the two countries. 

Liarne Schai, the co-owner of the Matterhorn Restaurant in Sydney, is delighted with her new mechanical staff member. 

“Ah, love the robot. Love the robot, she makes my life a lot easier. It is like a tower that has got four trays. It will carry eight of our dinner plates in one go. She is geo-mapped to the floor (customer names, location of tables, etc.) The robot knows where all our tables are,” Schai said.  

Australia’s hospitality workforce has traditionally relied on international students. They have, however, been restricted from entering after Australia closed its borders to most foreign nationals in March 2020 in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus.  

Labor shortages are affecting not only hospitality in Australia, but a range of industries from construction to information technology.  

Liarne Schai says she has tried for months without success to recruit workers. 

“It is the biggest issue we have at the moment. We have been running ads for chefs, for waiters, for kitchen hands for six months and we have had zero applicants. We are offering above award wages, we are offering bonuses, we are offering everything you can think of to attract appropriate staff and I am not even getting inappropriate staff, or untrained staff. I am just getting nobody.” 

Labor shortages should ease when Australia reopens its borders to foreign nationals, but analysts expect many vacancies will remain unfilled.  

Employer groups have demanded that Australia increase its intake of migrant workers. 

Australia’s official unemployment rate stands at 5.2%.   

But with more than 700,000 Australians without a job, there are calls for the government to boost domestic training programs and wages. 
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«Україна поступово має вивести з експлуатації реактори російського типу й побудувати нові станції», вважає директор Westinghouse
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Україна також закуповує вугілля у США та Колумбії
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Це має бути комерційний космодром
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On a recent afternoon, Tina Singh watched nearly a dozen students at a suburban Los Angeles truck-driving school backing up their practice vehicles into parking spaces. Many had never operated a manual transmission before.

“It’s an exciting time to be a truck driver right now because there’s so much demand for drivers,” said Singh, the school’s director. “Our yards are busy, and they’re very vibrant with a lot of activity.”

Business is booming at the California Truck Driving Academy amid a nationwide shortage of long-haul drivers that has led to promises of high pay and instant job offers. The Inglewood school has seen annual enrollment grow by almost 20% since last year, and has expanded to offering night classes.

“Everything in this country runs by truck at some point or another,” Singh said. “And so, you know, you need truck drivers to move goods.”

The U.S. is about 80,000 drivers short due to a convergence of factors, according to Nick Vyas, executive director of the University of Southern California’s Marshall Center for Global Supply Chain Management.

Consumer spending is 15% above where it was in February 2020, just before the pandemic paralyzed the economy. Production rose nearly 5% over the past year as U.S. factories worked to keep up with an increased demand for goods, according to the Federal Reserve. Imports have narrowed the gap.

At the same time, many U.S. workers decided to quit jobs that required frequent public contact. This created shortages of workers to unload ships, transport goods and staff retail shops.

In California, the straining supply chain is illustrated at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, where dozens of ships wait off the coast to be unloaded. The average wait is nearly 17 days, despite around-the-clock port operations beginning in October.

A lack of drivers at the ports has helped fuel the surge at the nearby California Truck Driving Academy, where instructors in reflective vests keep watch as students practice steering big rigs around a fenced-in paved lot.

“You’re kind of helping the community out, and you’re making money at the same time,” student Thierno Barry said. “It’s a win-win situation.”

Barry, 23, was happy to be behind the wheel on his first day, despite rolling over several orange safety cones.

“I feel great, especially during the pandemic,” he said.

Meanwhile, the school is facing its own shortage — of truck driving instructors.
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President Joe Biden’s signature Build Back Better package of climate and social spending passed the House of Representatives on Friday morning, 220-213, less than 24 hours after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produced an analysis of the legislation finding that it would add a relatively modest $160 billion to the federal debt over the next 10 years.

The bill, which still must pass the narrowly divided Senate, dedicates more than half a trillion dollars to spending on measures to combat climate change, provides funding for universal pre-school, expands access to healthcare, and provides tax credits to families with children, among other things.

The rapid passage of the bill after the CBO announced the verdict on its costs underlines the importance of that agency to the legislative process in Washington, as well as lawmakers’ willingness to be flexible about how they read the agency’s analyses.

A significant number of Democrats  who represent contested districts – enough to scuttle the bill if they had voted against it – had been concerned about the political impact of Republican claims that the bill would greatly expand the federal debt. Last week, these mostly moderate Democrats told Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that they would not vote for the bill without a CBO analysis that showed it was fully paid for.

Detailed ‘budget score’

The CBO is a non-partisan federal agency within the legislative branch created in 1974 that is considered by many economists the gold standard for analyzing the budgetary impact of proposed legislation and its long-term impact on the federal debt.

On Thursday afternoon, the CBO began releasing its analysis of the bill, known as a “budget score.” It found that the combination of spending and tax breaks contained in the package add up to $2.4 trillion and that elements that would raise revenue or reduce spending add up to $2.27 trillion.

One element of the CBO report caused some confusion because of the way the numbers were presented. The official release said that the bill would result in a $367 billion increase in the debt over 10 years, because it did not account for the revenue effects of the increased IRS enforcement. In a different statement, the agency estimated $207 billion of increased revenue related to IRS enforcement, leaving the ultimate budget deficit increase at $160 billion over a decade.

A flexible reading of the CBO

In a political climate where Democrats and Republicans generally distrust each other, the CBO is still seen as above the fray, delivering non-partisan analysis. The agency’s judgment that the addition to the debt would average out to just $16 billion per year meant that the legislation does not officially pay for itself.

That’s where the flexibility in reading CBO analysis kicked in.

A key element of the bill is an $80 billion increase in funding for the Internal Revenue Service to enforce the nation’s tax laws. The White House and a number of outside groups, including a bipartisan coalition of former IRS commissioners, had projected that the investment would return $400 billion in increased tax revenue over a decade. But CBO only estimated a $207 billion return.

“CBO is notoriously cautious about predicting revenue increases from IRS enforcement,” said William A. Galston, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Governance Studies program.

“Estimating revenues from enforcement is an art not a science,” Galston said. “Bottom line, nobody knows for sure.”

It was that uncertainty, and the generally accepted understanding that CBO is very cautious about estimating tax revenue, that gave all but one of the moderate Democrats the wiggle room they needed to throw their support behind the bill.

“They took the position, after the CBO score came out, that it was good enough,” said Galston. “It enabled them to make a good faith claim that the bill was completely paid for.”

Republicans disagree

Not surprisingly, Republicans in the House chose to take a much more literal reading of the CBO’s analysis, and slammed the Democrats for passing a bill that will add to the national debt. 

“This is the single most reckless and irresponsible spending in the history of this country,” House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy declared.

McCarthy’s comment came during a marathon speech that stretched for more than eight hours, ending shortly before 6 a.m. on Friday. The overnight monologue took advantage of a loophole in House rules that allows the leader of either of the parties to take unlimited floor time, and forced Democrats to delay a vote they had hoped to take on Thursday.

CBO’s sway in the Senate unclear

The CBO score may have been enough to convince moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives to vote in favor of the bill, but the problems it faces in the Senate go deeper than the legislation’s effect on the federal deficit.

The Democrats have only 50 votes in the 100-seat Senate, and must rely on Vice President Kamala Harris to cast a vote in the event of a tie. That means Democrats cannot afford to lose any votes on the bill.

The most prominent member of the party likely to break from the pack is West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who has been publicly skeptical of specific parts of the bill, and has been more generally concerned that an increase in government spending will lead to further increases in inflation.

Manchin’s constituents tend to be older and more likely than most Americans to be on a fixed income. That makes them especially vulnerable to price inflation, which was recently measured at an annual rate of 6.2%, the highest in more than 30 years.
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For weeks, governments and policymakers across the world have been suggesting the recent spikes in consumer and energy prices are transitory and rising inflation will ease, once pandemic-related chain-supply disruptions and labor shortages are resolved and the global economy reboots.

But recent figures suggest inflation may persist for some time, prompting worries about an explosive cost-of-living crisis, which could roil the domestic politics of countries and disrupt the electoral plans of incumbent parties and their leaders.

Central bankers have been saying the price increases of goods, rent, food and energy are one-offs, the consequences of economies struggling to recover from the induced coma of COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic restrictions. But new data on inflation from around the world have exceeded forecasts, and central bankers are now being criticized for failing to act to restrain surging prices.

Bank of England stands pat

Central banks are coming under mounting pressure to raise interest rates but are nervous about acting too hastily and reversing recovery by reducing stimulus measures. The Bank of England earlier this month decided not to raise interest rates despite its governor, Andrew Bailey, earlier saying bankers “will have to act and must do so if we see a risk, particularly to medium-term inflation and to medium-term inflation expectations.”

Recent figures show inflation in Britain has now jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade, with the consumer price index climbing 4.2% in October from a year earlier. The Bank of England has an official inflation target of 2%. The bank’s decision not to raise its key rate, leaving it at 0.1%, confounded the financial markets and sent the pound plunging in value, and the inaction is still being criticized by many economic commentators.

They include Neil Wilson of Markets.com, who says the governor’s “credibility is at stake.”

Likewise, in the United States, the Federal Reserve is coming under fire over rising inflation. Earlier this week, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and an influential commentator, said he thought America’s central bank was losing credibility over its long-standing view that inflation is transitory.

“I think the Fed is losing credibility. I’ve argued that it is really important to re-establish a credible voice on inflation and this has massive institutional, political and social implications,” he said.

El-Erian told CNBC-TV the Federal Reserve’s inflation stance risked undermining President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, warning that policymakers should not forget that those on low incomes are the hardest hit by rising consumer prices.

In the US

The rapid increase in household living costs already is being felt by Americans.

According to a series of opinion polls conducted by the pollster YouGov for The Economist magazine, 46% of Americans said they believed the state of the economy was “getting worse,” with only 19% saying it was “getting better.”

In the U.S., the consumer price index rose 6.2% in the 12 months ending in October, the highest rate in three decades. Americans said rising wages were not keeping up with rapidly increasing prices. Fifty-six percent of the respondents to YouGov said they were having trouble affording fuel, 48% could not easily pay their rent or mortgages and 45% said they were struggling to feed their families.

Some member states of the European Union also are facing a cost-of-living crisis.

Romania reported in October an annual inflation rate of 6.5%, the highest increase in consumer prices among EU member states in southeast Europe, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. Eurozone inflation is running at 4.1%, more than double the European Central Bank’s target.

Increases seen as transitory

This week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde conceded that Eurozone inflation likely would remain elevated for longer than had been expected. She remained wedded to the idea that price increases were likely transitory, and she was still forecasting inflation would drop below the bank’s 2% target in the medium term.

“We still see inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than originally expected,” she told lawmakers at the European Parliament.

Some economists in Europe, however, question her optimism. They say the pandemic is far from over, pointing to a fourth wave prompting rising cases across much of the continent and the prospect of a return of economically damaging retractions. Germany has declared a state of emergency and Austria has announced a full lockdown to begin Monday, becoming the first European country to go back under a full lockdown and the first to make COVID-19 vaccination compulsory.

Germany’s coronavirus situation is so grave that a lockdown, including for the vaccinated, cannot be ruled out, German Health Minister Jens Spahn said Friday.

“We are in a national emergency,” he told a news conference.

The path back to normality is now again murky for Europe, and economists say the impact of a fourth wave of the coronavirus on household budgets is going to be significant — this at a time when the price of almost everything is going through the roof.
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