New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rebounded more than expected in February after two straight monthly declines and shipments surged, which could temper expectations of a sharp slowdown in business spending on equipment in the first quarter.

The Commerce Department’s report on Friday could prompt economists to raise their economic growth estimates for the first three months of the year. They were slashed last week after data showed retail sales fell in February for the third month in a row.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday painted an upbeat picture of the economy when it raised interest rates and forecast at least two more increases for 2018.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 1.8 percent last month. That was the biggest gain in five months and followed a downwardly revised 0.4 percent decrease in January.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast those orders rising only 0.8 percent in February after a previously reported 0.3 percent decline in January. Core capital goods orders increased 7.4 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 percent last month, the biggest advance since December 2016, after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in January. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement.

They were previously reported to have slipped 0.1 percent in January. Business spending on equipment powered ahead in 2017 as companies anticipated a hefty reduction in the corporate income tax rate. The Trump administration slashed that rate to 21 percent from 35 percent effective in January.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data as investors worried that President Donald Trump’s announcement on Thursday of tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods could start a global trade war.

Prices of U.S. Treasuries were mixed while U.S. stock index futures were largely flat. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

Strong business spending

The surge in core capital goods orders in February suggests further gains. There had been concerns spending could slow sharply after double-digit growth in the past quarters.

Investment in equipment is likely to be bolstered by robust business confidence, strengthening global economic growth and a weakening dollar, which is boosting demand for U.S. exports.

That is helping to support manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of U.S. economic activity.

The strength in core capital goods shipments, together with a surge in industrial production in February, could help offset the impact of soft consumer spending on first-quarter growth.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting gross domestic product increasing at a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first three months of the year.

The government reported last month that the economy grew at a 2.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter. However, revisions to December data on construction spending, factory orders and wholesale inventories have suggested the fourth-quarter growth estimate could be raised to a 3.1 percent pace. The government will publish its third GDP estimate on Wednesday.

Last month, orders for machinery soared 1.6 percent. There were also hefty increases in orders of primary metals and electrical equipment, appliances and components.

Orders for computers and electronic products fell 0.2 percent, with bookings for communications equipment recording their biggest drop since December 2015.

Overall orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, vaulted 3.1 percent last month as demand for transportation equipment soared 7.1 percent.

That followed a 3.5 percent tumble in January. Orders for motor vehicles and parts increased 1.6 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in January.
…

Russia will likely prepare a list of restrictions on imported products from the United States in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, Moscow’s trade ministry said on Friday, according to Interfax news agency.

The announcement came after China threatened to retaliate to U.S. President Donald Trump’s measures, stoking fears of a looming global trade war.

“We will prepare our position, submit it to the Economy Ministry and apply to the WTO [the World Trade Organization],” Russia’s Deputy Trade Minister, Viktor Yevtukhov, said, according to Interfax.

“We will probably prepare proposals on the response measures. Restrictions against the American goods. I think that all countries will follow this path,” Yevtukhov added.

The United States has said the tariffs are needed to protect its national security and therefore do not need to be cleared by the WTO. Many trade experts disagree saying they fall under the jurisdiction of the Geneva-based global trade body.

Russian steel and aluminum producers have been playing down the potential impact of the U.S. tariffs. But Russia’s Trade Ministry said there would be an impact.

Russian steel and aluminum producers may lose $2 billion and $1 billion, respectively, from the U.S. tariffs introduction, Yevtukhov said, citing preliminary estimates for the Trade Ministry. It was not clear whether he was referring to annual losses.

China’s commerce ministry said on Friday that the country was planning measures against up to $3 billion of U.S. imports to balance the steel and aluminum tariffs, with a list of 128 U.S. products that could be targeted.
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U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a memo paving the way for major tariffs on Chinese imports. It’s part of Trump’s plan to crack down on China’s theft of intellectual property. But many U.S. farmers are worried the tariffs will prompt China to retaliate against their products. VOA’s Kane Farabaugh and Bill Gallo report on what some fear could be just the start of significant trade friction between Washington and Beijing.
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Just a week after the empire he started announced it is shutting down, Toys R Us founder Charles Lazarus died at 94.

“There have been many sad moments for Toys R Us in recent weeks and none more heartbreaking than today’s news about the passing of our beloved founder,” the company said Thursday.

No cause of death was given.

Lazarus, a World War II veteran, started Toys R Us in 1948 as a single store in Washington, D.C., selling baby furniture.

At customer requests, he soon expanded his line to include toys and began opening large stores the size of supermarkets, devoted to toys and bicycles.

Toys R Us and its massive selection became a favorite of suburban American families.

Toys R Us opened stores all over the world before Lazarus stepped down as the head of the company in 1994.

In recent years, Toys R Us found itself struggling to compete with other large stores, especially with the onslaught of such online retailers as Amazon.

It declared bankruptcy last year, and announced last week it was shutting down its remaining stores.
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U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday initiating actions to consider imposing tariffs on a long list of nearly 1,300 Chinese imported products worth about $60 billion.

The move could limit China’s ability to invest in the U.S. technology industry, setting the stage for a possible trade war with Beijing.

The decision to take action is a result of an investigation conducted by the U.S. trade representative to determine whether Beijing’s trade practices may be “unreasonable or discriminatory” and may be “harming American intellectual property rights, innovation or technology development.” After a seven-month investigation, the USTR’s office found the policies were in violation.

At the signing ceremony, Trump said, “We have a tremendous intellectual property theft going on.”

He said the U.S. wants reciprocal trade and tariff deals with China and other countries. “If they charge us, we charge them the same thing,” Trump said at the White House ceremony.

He also blamed the “unfair Chinese trade practices” for the U.S. trade deficit with China, which has reached a record $375 billion on his watch.

Campaign promises

Trump campaigned on promises to bring down America’s massive trade deficit — $566 billion last year — by rewriting trade agreements and cracking down on what he called abusive commercial practices by U.S. trading partners.

The investigation concluded that China “uses foreign ownership restrictions, including joint venture requirements, equity limitations and other investment restrictions to require or pressure technology transfer from U.S. companies to Chinese entities.”

Trade associations representing a wide range of the business community said they largely agreed with criticism of China’s intellectual property practices, but criticized the tariffs as a poor remedy that could ultimately harm U.S. businesses and raise prices for consumers.

Earlier this week, some of the largest American retailers and tech companies, including Walmart and Apple, urged Trump to carefully consider the impact the tariffs would have on consumer prices.

“As you continue to investigate harmful technology and intellectual property practices, we ask that any remedy carefully consider the impact on consumer prices,” a coalition of more than 40 business groups, led by the Information Technology Industry Council, said Sunday in a letter to the president.

“As the industry closest to consumers, retailers know firsthand how high tariffs will hurt American families,” the letter continued.

The prospect of a trade war sent markets plummeting, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing down 724 points, almost 3 percent, its biggest drop in six weeks.

Global trade conflagration

Bloomberg Economics estimated a global trade conflagration could wipe $470 billion off the world economy by 2020.

As news of the impending announcement spread, China announced it was preparing tariffs of its own on U.S. soybeans, sorghum and live hogs.

“China will not sit idly to see its legitimate rights damaged and must take all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights,” the Commerce Ministry in Beijing said in a statement on its website.

The Trump administration has said it is simply taking long overdue action following years of unfair Chinese trading practices that they argue previous administrations have insufficiently countered.

Peter Navarro, Trump’s hawkish top trade adviser, said that the administration had decided on the tariffs in lockstep and that the U.S. had opted to take tariff actions after dialogues with China over the past 15 years failed to change Chinese behavior significantly.

The tariffs will be subject to a 15-day comment period before the U.S. trade representative finalizes the move. Other measures, including new restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S., will take longer.
…

Stocks plunged Thursday after the Trump administration slapped sanctions on goods and investment from China. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 700 points as investors feared that trade tensions between the world’s largest economies would escalate.

The planned sanctions include tariffs on $48 billion worth of Chinese imports as well as restrictions on Chinese investments. Trump said he’s taking those steps in response to theft of American technology, and the Chinese government said it will defend itself. Investors are worried that trade tensions would hurt U.S. companies and harm the world economy.

On Thursday they fled stocks and bought bonds, which sent bond prices higher and yields lower. With interest rates falling, banks took some of the worst losses. Technology and industrial companies, basic materials makers and health care companies also fell sharply.

Peter Donisanu, an investment strategy analyst for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the risk of a damaging trade war is still low because the Trump administration is targeting specific goods that aren’t central to China’s economy. That could change if it puts tariffs on products like electronics or appliances imported from China.

“If the Trump administration really wanted to hurt China and start a trade war, then they would go after those larger sectors,” he said. Still, Donisanu said that after last year’s rally, investors are looking for new reasons to feel optimistic about stocks. With trade tensions in focus over the last month, they’ve had trouble finding any.

The S&P 500 index skidded 68.24 points, or 2.5 percent, to 2,643.69. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 724.42 points, or 2.9 percent, to 23,957.89. The Nasdaq composite gave up 178.61 points, or 2.4 percent, to 7,166.68. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks lost 35.43 points, or 2.2 percent, to 1,543.87.

Construction equipment maker Caterpillar fell $8.90, or 5.7 percent, to $146.90, for its worst loss since mid-2016. Aerospace company Boeing slid $17.49, or 5.2 percent, to $319.61.

Investors also sold some of the market’s biggest recent winners. Among technology companies, Microsoft fell $2.69, or 2.9 percent, to $89.79 and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, fell $40.85, or 3.7 percent, to $1,053.15. Online retailer Amazon slid $36.94, or 2.3 percent, to $1,544.92.

Recent tariffs

Earlier this month the Trump administration ordered tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, and stocks dropped as investors worried about the possibility of tougher restrictions on international trade and smaller profits for corporations.

Their fears eased when the administration said some countries will be exempt from the tariffs. That continued Thursday, as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the tariffs won’t apply to the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and Australia.

Donisanu, of Wells Fargo, said the Trump administration isn’t hostile to trade necessarily, but wants to get other countries to revise the terms of America’s trade deals.

“This is probably intended to get China to get more serious in discussions around violations of intellectual property rights and addressing those issues,” he said.

Bond prices climbed, sending yields lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 2.82 percent from 2.88 percent. Falling bond yields are bad for banks because they force interest rates on loans lower. Bank of America lost $1.32, or 4.1 percent, to $30.55 and JPMorgan Chase gave up $4.79, or 4.2 percent, to $109.95.

Utility companies and real estate investment trusts moved higher. When bond yields decline, investors often bid up those stocks and others that pay big dividends.

The decline in rates comes a day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and said the U.S. economy and the job market continued to improve over the last two months. The Fed expects to raise rates three times this year, although some investors think a fourth increase is possible. The Fed also said it might raise rates three more times next year instead of two.

Overseas markets closed mostly lower.
…

U.S. Federal Reserve officials voted to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percent this week, signaling perhaps three or more rate hikes this year as economic conditions improve. But as Mil Arcega reports, rising rates mean higher borrowing costs for consumers, many who have yet to see a significant increase in wages.
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U.S. President Donald Trump is expected at any time to fire a salvo directly at China in what could escalate into a full-scale trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Trade actions against China, partly in response to the theft and improper transfer of American technology to Chinese companies, are expected to be announced by Trump as soon as Thursday. His schedule includes a midday signing of a memorandum “targeting China’s economic aggression.”

On the anticipated eve of the measures, U.S. officials spoke to reporters about their monthslong investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 of Beijing’s trade practices.

China has long been considered by many in the international community to have contravened fundamental principles of global trade, despite joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.  

There have been a “number of specific failings by China to live up to its WTO obligations,” said an official of the U.S. Trade Representative in a Wednesday background briefing for reporters.  

The briefing and other comments not for attribution by officials are seen as clear signals the administration, in response to an Aug. 14 memo by Trump, intends to use the Section 301 trade tool.

The last time it was wielded was by the Clinton administration against Japan to pry open that country’s automotive sector.

‘Ripping off’

China has been “ripping off” the United States, Trump has emphasized numerous times in public remarks during which he has harshly criticized his predecessors for not doing anything about it.  

According to published reports, Trump is expected to impose tariffs, valued at tens of billions of dollars, on a number of Chinese products. Sources say that in addition to tariffs, restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States are likely as a response to Beijing using state funds and enterprises under the government’s control to purchase intellectual property here.

Trump in January hit the Chinese-dominated solar panel and cell industry with tariffs. Earlier this month, he launched global tariffs on steel and aluminum (from which Canada and Mexico were quickly given indefinite exemptions), a move China’s commerce ministry said it “strongly opposed.”   

U.S. Trade Representative officials on Wednesday declined to specify what new actions will be taken, but they did not disagree that an announcement is expected as soon as Thursday.

“We’re getting very close,” said a USTR official speaking to reporters on condition of not being named. “The president will have the final say.”

Bracing for an anticipated harsh reaction from China, the official noted, “We recognize the potential gravity of the situation here.”

Depending on the severity of the measures taken by Trump, stock markets in Asia and elsewhere could be roiled, according to market analysts.

Trade groups representing American retail giants, such as Walmart, and tech companies, including Apple, warn that sweeping tariffs would raise prices for consumers in the United States and might not do much to reduce the trade deficit.
…

U.S. congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $1.3 trillion spending bill as a budget deadline looms.

Lawmakers now have until midnight Friday to approve it and prevent the year’s third government shutdown. Passage of the massive bipartisan effort seems certain.

The bill, which will keep the government funded until the end of September, has President Donald Trump’s support, the White House said in a statement released Wednesday.

“The president had a discussion with (House) Speaker (Paul) Ryan and (Senate) Leader (Mitch) McConnell, where they talked about their shared priorities secured in the omnibus spending bill,” said White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Deadline late Friday

The bill will give Trump a huge budget increase for the military, including a 2.4 percent pay raise for military personnel.

It also will include a measure strengthening the federal background check system for gun purchases.

WATCH: Federal Budget Explainer

The “Fix NICS” measure would provide funding for states to comply with the existing National Instant Criminal Background Check system and penalize federal agencies that don’t comply.

It also will include money to improve school safety, including money for training school officials and law enforcement officers on how to identify signs of potential violence and intervene early, installing metal detectors and other steps to “harden” schools to prevent violence.

GOP aides said that Trump will win $1.6 billion for a wall and physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border. But Trump would be denied a far larger $25 billion request for multiyear funding for the project.

To the Democrats’ disappointment, the bill makes no mention of protections for so-called Dreamers, undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children.

No insurer subsidies

It also won’t provide subsidies to health care insurers who cut costs for low-earning customers. And it won’t have federal payments for carriers to help them afford to cover their costliest clients.

Both parties touted the $4.6 billion in total funding to fight the nation’s opioid addiction epidemic and a record $3 billion increase for medical research at the National Institutes of Health.

The House is expected to vote on the bill by Thursday, followed quickly by the Senate, to meet Friday’s midnight deadline.
…

When Nestle executive Stephan Canz attended the German school in Nairobi in the early 1980s, it was surrounded by lush coffee farms.

Today, the trees have long since been uprooted and replaced by a shopping mall and upmarket homes, driving a sharp drop in

production of Kenya’s premium beans.

“The coffee has disappeared,” said Canz, who co-manages Swiss-based Nestle’s partnerships with coffee farmers globally. “You have to go almost to the slopes of Mount Kenya to find coffee.”

Kenya accounts for just 1 percent of the global crop, but its high-quality arabica beans are sought-after for blending with other varieties.

Alarmed by a steep drop in the country’s production, Nestle, which buys 10 percent of the world’s coffee and has the leading packaged coffee business, is working with farmers to guarantee its supplies.

In a $1 million project, begun in 2010, it says it is boosting bean production and quality.

Mary Wanja, with 350 coffee trees on her plot in rural Kirinyaga at the foot of Mount Kenya, is one of more than 40,000 of Kenya’s 600,000 coffee farmers participating in the project.

She harvested 1,200 kg of coffee last year, double the previous year, and saw her annual earnings rise to 100 shillings ($0.99) per kg, from 70 shillings.

“We are planting more trees so we can harvest more,” she said, standing amid newly planted seedlings provided by the Nestle project, which she joined three years ago.

Multiplier effect

Since Kenya’s production peaked at 129,000 tonnes in 1988/89 it has dropped steadily due to poor management and global price swings. Farmers have switched crops or sold their land.

Nestle, which is counting on growth in its coffee business as it overhauls its business to improve performance, works with a local milling and marketing company, Coffee Management Services (CMS), to train farmers regularly on fertilizer application, pest and disease control. It provides seedlings for farmers wishing to plant more.

“People didn’t know how and when to apply fertilizer properly. Nestle has taught us a lot,” said William Njeru, a farmer who harvested 7,600 kg last year, up from around 1,200 kg a year before he joined the project five years ago.

“If we can have other partners who are doing what Nestle is doing, the multiplier effect on productivity in Kenya can be very high,” said Peter Kimata, deputy head of Nestle’s partner CMS.

A half hour drive up the road from his office sits an abandoned coffee factory with rusting machinery.

Farmer Moses Wachira says it was closed in 2013 after its management embezzled farmers’ money. That forced 500 farmers to start selling their coffee to brokers who offer lower prices.

“These problems are causing production to fall because nobody watches to ensure managers do not misappropriate farmers’ money,” said the white-bearded farmer.

Kenya’s harvest fell 12 percent in the 2016/17 season to 40,700 metric tonnes, according to government data.

Government efforts to revive the sector have faltered. Last year, a judge stopped the government from acting on the recommendations of an official report on ways to boost coffee production after farmers claimed they were not consulted.

Some Kenyan farmers will miss out on expanding the crop to meet 2-3 percent annual growth in global demand for coffee, according to Nestle, as consumers discover new ways of consuming coffee, including capsules and cold brews.

Demand for coffee is also growing locally.

In Kenya, cafe chain Java, owned by Dubai-based private equity firm Abraaj, opened its first shop in 1999 and has grown to 68 retail outlets, as an emerging middle class and young professionals develop a taste for lattes and mocha.

“The coffee has to come from somewhere,” said Canz.

 
…

Міністр інфраструктури України Володимир Омелян повідомив, що у 2018 році в Україні відремонтують близько 4 тисяч кілометрів доріг паралельно з моніторингом якості вже відремонтованих.

«Цього року «Укравтодор» отримав безпрецедентно високе фінансування на контроль якості доріг – 30 мільйонів гривень. Передаючи дороги місцевого значення, які ремонтувались в 2015 році, ми зобов’язані вжити всіх можливих заходів, щоб передати їх в належному стані. Саме тому ми спільно з «Укравтодором» зараз перевіряємо всі дороги, які ремонтувались в 2015-му», – повідомив Омелян на засіданні уряду у середу.

Також він повідомив, що наразі уряд працює над встановленням на дорогах України автоматичних станцій зважування транспорту для боротьби з перевантаженням. За його словами, цього року такі станції з’являться навколо Києва.

У свою чергу керівник «Укравтодору» Славомір Новак повідомив, що на дороги державного значення протягом п’яти років з усіх джерел планують спрямувати близько 300 мільярдів гривень.

«Згідно з прогнозами Міністерства фінансів, передбачається надходження коштів до Дорожнього фонду у таких обсягах: цього року – 33,4 мільярди гривень плюс окреме бюджетне фінансування, в 2019 році – 51 мільярд», – розповів Новак.

Днями в ефірі Радіо Свобода радник голови «Укравтодору» Олександр Кава повідомив, що за минулий рік були відремонтовані 2100 кілометрів доріг із загальної мережі у 170 тисяч кілометрів. За словами чиновника, на капітальний ремонт українських доріг треба щонайменше два трильйони гривень.
…

Міністр інфраструктури України Володимир Омелян повідомив, що у 2018 році в Україні відремонтують близько 4 тисяч кілометрів доріг паралельно з моніторингом якості вже відремонтованих.

«Цього року «Укравтодор» отримав безпрецедентно високе фінансування на контроль якості доріг – 30 мільйонів гривень. Передаючи дороги місцевого значення, які ремонтувались у 2015 році, ми зобов’язані вжити всіх можливих заходів, щоб передати їх у належному стані. Саме тому ми спільно з «Укравтодором» зараз перевіряємо всі дороги, які ремонтувались у 2015-му», – повідомив Омелян на засіданні уряду в середу.

Також він повідомив, що наразі уряд працює над встановленням на дорогах України автоматичних станцій зважування транспорту для боротьби з перевантаженням. За його словами, цього року такі станції з’являться навколо Києва.

У свою чергу керівник «Укравтодору» Славомір Новак повідомив, що на дороги державного значення протягом п’яти років з усіх джерел планують спрямувати близько 300 мільярдів гривень.

«Згідно з прогнозами Міністерства фінансів, передбачається надходження коштів до Дорожнього фонду в таких обсягах: цього року – 33,4 мільярди гривень плюс окреме бюджетне фінансування, в 2019 році – 51 мільярд», – розповів Новак.

Днями в ефірі Радіо Свобода радник голови «Укравтодору» Олександр Кава повідомив, що за минулий рік були відремонтовані 2100 кілометрів доріг із загальної мережі в 170 тисяч кілометрів. За словами чиновника, на капітальний ремонт українських доріг треба щонайменше два трильйони гривень.
…