The new U.S.-China trade deal, which includes 10 initial agreements on agricultural trade, financial services, investment and energy, is drawing mixed reviews.

The agreement is being panned by some as a poor deal for the United States that does not address fundamental issues concerning the Chinese market. But others say the agreement represents incremental progress.

Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, argued the deal has failed to address issues facing advanced industries that are critical to the U.S. economic future.

In a statement, he said the plan, which opens up Chinese markets for mostly commodity-based and finance industries, has in return given, “China free rein to use its massive foreign reserves to buy up American companies in advanced industries.”

Atkinson urged the Trump administration’s simple focus on the trade deficit be shifted to two-way trade and demand real changes in Chinese policies related to America’s advanced, knowledge and technology-based industries.

Deal means nothing

Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, argued that the deal, by itself, means almost nothing since the increase in market access that China now promises has been promised before.

“Even if they are fully implemented, [the increase in market access] can be easily undone,” Scissors wrote in an emailed reply to VOA, adding that he doesn’t foresee the U.S. trade deficit with China being reduced this year.

Scissors urged the United States to prioritize its negotiations with China on reduction of subsidies to Chinese state-owned enterprise, which he believes will improve foreign firms’ market access in China.

“It should also prioritize reducing Chinese complicity in theft of intellectual property [IP]. The IP goal should be accompanied by the threat of sanctions,” Scissors said, adding both steps would allow the emergence of the American competitive edge.

Incremental progress

Agreeing that it isn’t a major deal, Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University HSBC Business School, however, said the agreement is a step forward for the Trump administration.

“If the agreement is actually implemented, it would represent, I think, a solid step forward for U.S. market access to China. And it needs to be viewed in that context, though, that it is one step further from where we were before,” Balding told VOA, disagreeing that President Trump got played or out-maneuvered.

Balding agreed China has employed what others called a “delay-and-diversion’ strategy and waited for years to honor its commitments, some of which dated back to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2000.

Yet, the diplomatic reality is that, as an advanced economy, the United States doesn’t have a lot of leverage over China to open its market, the professor added.

However, China now appears to respond to embarrassment, triggered by Trump’s earlier angry tweets, which the professor said may provide some unconventional leverage in pushing China.

“If the Trump administration keeps public pressure on China, I do think it would be very likely that you could see additional incremental progress in various specific markets or industries,” Balding added.

While it’s urgent for the United States to demand full market access in China, C.Y. Huang, a partner of FCC Partners, warned U.S. companies are losing their edge in competing with their fast-growing Chinese rivals.

“China is no longer afraid of opening up its market and competition from the United States. Many U.S. companies can hardly compete with their Chinese counterparts in China,” Huang told VOA.

Gigantic steps

Washington heralded last week’s deal as “a Herculean accomplishment.”

According to U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, China will open its market to U.S. beef by mid-July while, in return the United States will issue a proposed rule to allow Chinese cooked poultry to enter U.S. markets by the same deadline.

Beijing will also allow U.S.-owned firms in China to provide credit rating and electronic payment services, the latter of which is already dominated by China’s UnionPay.

Ross said the deal, part of the 100-day plan after the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last month, aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China, which reached $347 billion last year.

“This is more than has been done in the whole history of U.S.-China relations on trade,” Ross told a news briefing at the White House, adding the deal takes three “gigantic” step to chip away at the country’s crippling trade deficit.
…

Cybersecurity experts warn that hundreds of thousands of computer users across the globe remain vulnerable following a large-scale virus attack in recent days. The so-called ‘ransomware’ virus struck governments and companies around the world, as Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
…

Chinese President Xi Jinping says countries participating in the two-day Belt and Road Forum have agreed to an action plan with a list of 270 goals

Speaking at the end of the forum, China’s leader said the 30 heads of state who attended the summit in Beijing and nearby Yanqi Lake signed a communiqué to promote an open global economy, rebalance globalization, and deepen trade liberalization. 

Xi’s Belt and Road development initiative focuses on connectivity and cooperation among countries primarily China and the rest of Eurasia.  It includes the land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the oceangoing “Maritime Silk Road”. 

The strategy underlines China’s push to take a bigger role in global affairs.  Xi stressed China would not base cooperation on ideology or use the Belt and Road to pursue a political agenda, allaying concerns of critics who have highlighted the massive project’s possible geopolitical impact.

“We have every reason to have full confidence in the prospects for the Belt and Road initiative,” Xi said.  “At the same time, the Belt and Road initiative is an expansive project and the road ahead is very long and cooperation is key.” 

Expansive Belt and Road 

Although many of the more than 100 countries and organizations participating in the summit welcome China’s efforts to boost trade and to play a bigger role in global affairs, participation in the forum was mixed.  Some countries sent representatives, but have yet to officially back the project.

The forum included representatives from the United States and North Korea. 

Countries such as the United States and Germany have emphasized the need for transparency and a level playing field. 

“Germany as a country has not asked to be a part of the initiative, but German companies have asked to be part of it,” said Brigitte Zypries, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, who attended the forum.  “It is obviously relevant to know what is going to be built and the procedures to take part in this building are the same for every company and every country.” 

“The Belt and Road Initiative originates from China, but it belongs to the world,” Xi said, in remarks before the leaders’ summit Monday.  “The Belt and Road construction spans different regions, development phases and civilizations.  It is an open and inclusive cooperation platform.” 

Sunday, Xi outlined his vision for the plan and pledged to use development to fight a wide range of problems from terrorism to poverty.  Xi’s plan involves the creation of six economic corridors that would link China to 65 countries.  The participation of those countries would account for 60 percent of the world’s population and 30 percent of global GDP. 

An estimated $900 billion would be spent on connectivity projects across land and sea, making the Belt and Road initiative the most expensive development plan in history, several times larger than the U.S. Marshall Plan that was used to rebuild Europe after World War II. 

China has offered to shoulder a big slice of the responsibility, pledging $124 billion, which is double of what the World Bank lent in 2016.  Analysts said Beijing can easily bear the burden.  China has foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3 trillion.  Last year, Chinese companies invested $170 billion in overseas projects. 

Empire building 

Xi offered to establish 50 scientific laboratories with participating countries, train 5,000 foreign scientists and invited 500 foreign research groups to visit China.   The plan will also launch 100 “happy home” projects, 100 poverty alleviation projects and 100 health care and rehabilitation projects in countries along the Belt and Road, he said.  

But based on how the project has been outlined, China appears to be trying its hand at a new form of economic colonization, said Mohan Malik, a professor at the Institute of Asian Security in Hawaii. 

“China is in an empire-building mode: an empire of exclusive economic enclaves that would create a Sino-centric unipolar Asia,” Malik said in an emailed response.  “Chinese officials, in jest, talk of buying off smaller countries instead of invading them.” 

Malik adds that with its slowing economy, China risks “imperial overreach” with such a massive venture. 

David Kelly, director of research at the private China Policy consultants said if successful the outcome could be a positive thing, but the Belt and Road is swiftly becoming a measure of China’s global standing. 

“But if it doesn’t work, if it runs into problems, if it’s impractical, if it’s too costly, if it falls over, it will cost China’s standing in the world.  And that is what worries people because it is essentially an educated bet, an educated gamble,” Kelly said.
…

China says nearly 30 heads of state who were attending its first Belt and Road forum joined Beijing in signing a communiqué pledging to fight protectionism and ensure free and inclusive trade. China also used the meeting to assure other countries about the scope and aims of the ambitious initiative. VOA’s Bill Ide has more from Beijing.
…

Голова КНР Сі Цзіньпін звернувся до урядів із закликом домагатися «більшої відкритості і співпраці» і «відмовитися від протекціонізму» задля глобального економічного зростання. Про це китайський лідер заявив 15 травня в Пекіні на форумі «Один пояс, один шлях», учасниками якого є представники 29 країн Азії, Європи та Африки.

«У світі зростання, взаємозалежності і викликів жодна країна не може давати раду цим викликам або вирішувати світові проблеми самотужки», – сказав Сі, який сидів поруч з президентом Росії Володимиром Путіним.

Сі Цзіньпін пообіцяв виділити додатково 124 мільярди доларів на реалізацію торговельної ініціативи Китаю, який прагне сполучити країну з Африкою, Азією і Європою через мережу портів, залізниць, автошляхів і промислових парків.

Пекін нині декларує себе захисником вільної торгівлі в час, коли президент США Дональд Трамп поставив під сумнів вигоду від торговельних угод із іншими країнами.

Росія дотепер обережно реагувала на ініціативу Пекіна, оскільки, як вважають аналітики, реалізація задумів керівництва КНР може посилити вплив Китаю в Центральній Азії за рахунок Москви. Але 15 травня Путін висловив підтримку цьому плану і додав, що Росія має намір бути активно залучена.
…

Historic rivals China and Vietnam are working on substantive agreements that could cover trade, investment and maritime resource sharing despite a bitter sovereignty dispute that had snarled relations less than a year ago.

The Communist neighbors are inching toward new trade and investment ties that analysts say would help shore up overall relations. Some believe the two might later approach stickier topics such as joint use of disputed waters or humane treatment of each other’s fishermen. The two countries still contest sovereignty over tracts of the vast, resource-rich South China Sea east of Vietnam and southwest of Hong Kong.

Prospects of some kind of agreement came into focus during Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang’s visit to China, which ends Monday. He suggested the two sides work on complementing each other’s trade and investment advantages with a view toward improving overall relations, state media from Hanoi said.

“President Quang is in China, and China promised a lot,” said Yun Sun, senior associate with the East Asia Program under Washington-based think tank the Stimson Center. “From an economic point of view, it is certainly practical and beneficial for Vietnam to have some sort of deal, but then again I think this still relatively early to tell.”

In a meeting with Quang Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for more cross-border economic cooperation zones and joint infrastructure building, according to  China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported. China pledged to “mitigate” its trade deficit with Vietnam and increase direct investment, Sun said.

“Talking probably does help lower tensions and improve the odds of things happening,” said Alaistair Chan, an economist covering China for Moody’s Analytics.

The Vietnamese president suggested China finalize rules on opening the Chinese market for farm products, dairy and seafood, media outlet vietnamnet.vn said. He also called on China to make more “preferential loans” and urged a working group to develop renewable energy investment projects that play on China’s strengths and demand in Vietnam, the Vietnamese news report said.

On Friday companies from both countries signed agreements on milk distribution, tourism and rice processing.

China is the largest trade partner of Vietnam, with imports and exports worth about $72 billion last year. Vietnam also calls China one of the top 10 investors in the country.

But both countries are likely to hedge on letting outsiders invest in infrastructure, a possible source of direct investment, Chan said. “If they can get there purely on trade and stay away from investment, a touchy subject in both countries, I think that’s probably where they can get their quickest gain,” he said.

China and Vietnam stepped up dialogue after July 2016, when a world arbitration court ruled that Beijing lacked a legal basis to claim more than 90 percent of the sea, a boon to rival claimants in Southeast Asia: Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. China responded to the ruling by seeking one-on-one dialogue with each country. Vietnam was one of the most hostile toward China before the court ruling.

Beijing and Hanoi dispute sovereignty over much of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea, including two chains of tiny islets. Beijing’s go-ahead for a Chinese oil rig in contested waters set off a clash in 2014. The two countries also still face distrust fanned by centuries of political rivalry as well as a border war in 1979.

Both countries stake their fast-growing economies on export manufacturing. Vietnamese companies resent China for using their larger production scales to sell goods in bulk at relatively low prices.

Relations got a lift in September when the Chinese premier and Vietnamese prime minister agreed to manage maritime differences. Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong the two countries get along with a visit to China in January.

Another boost came as China emerged last year as the top single-country source of tourism for Vietnam. About 2.2 million Chinese visited Vietnam from January to October. Chinese tourists have reshaped the economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan over the past decade.

Agreements on managing disputed tracts of the South China Sea may come later if the two sides keep getting along, experts say.

Vietnam and China have agreed to an “informal” median line in the tract of sea where their claims overlap, said Carl Thayer, Southeast Asia-specialized emeritus professor of politics at The University of New South Wales in Australia. They might eventually work on expanding joint exploration for oil under the seabed and a way to ensure “humane” treatment of fishermen, he said.

“It’s to stop the ramming, boarding, seizing fish catches and radio equipment and in the old days taking them hostages for money,” Thayer said. Under a human treatment agreement, he said, “If you find them, you report them to the other side and return them rather than bash them up and take everything.”
…

Міністерство економічного розвитку і торгівлі України та Китайська корпорація доріг і мостів домовилися про реконструкцію Шулявського шляхопроводу у Києві, інформує у неділю урядовий портал з посиланням на очільника українського міністерства Степана Кубіва.

Згідно з повідомленням, крім реконструкції столичного мосту, китайська сторона дала згоду на будівництво мосту біля Кременчука. Як повідомив перший віце-прем’єр, міністр Економрозвитку Степан Кубів проектні пропозиції щодо цих двох об’єктів оцінюються у 400 мільйонів доларів.

«Пропоную вам завершити підготовчі роботи щодо цих проектів не пізніше вересня, щоб після цього можна було перейти до укладення кредитних угод та договору на виконання робіт з корпорацією», – сказав Кубів 14 травня у Пекіні на зустрічі з керівництвом Китайської корпорації доріг та мостів.

27 лютого у Києві обвалилася частина бетонної огорожі на Шулявському шляхопроводі, що є важливою транспортною артерією міста. Причинами обвалу конструкцій назвали минулі пожежі біля шляхопроводу і корозію бетону. Тоді внаслідок обвалу ніхто не постраждав, але уламки пошкодили припарковані під мостом машини. Рух мостом нині дозволено із деякими обмеженнями.
…

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Saturday after meeting with officials from the world’s other industrialized democracies that he thought they were more at ease with Donald Trump’s economic policies.

“People are more comfortable today, now that they’ve had the opportunity to spend time with me and listen to the president and hear our economic message,” Mnuchin said after a two-day meeting in Bari, Italy, with members of the Group of Seven, industrialized nations commonly known as the G-7.

Officials from the G-7 countries hoped to learn more about the U.S. president’s plans, which they feared would revive protectionist policies and result in a global regression on issues such as banking reform and climate change.

After the meeting, officials from Japan and member European countries remained concerned about the economic shift in Washington, particularly after Mnuchin said the U.S. reserved the right to be protectionist if it thought trade was not free or fair.

“All the six others … said explicitly, and some very directly, to the representatives of the U.S. administration that it is absolutely necessary to continue with the same spirit of international cooperation,” said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin.

Don’t ‘backpedal’ on free trade

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said continued uncertainty about U.S. policy could dampen optimism within the G-7 about the global economy’s gradual recovery from the financial crisis that began nearly a decade ago.

De Galhau echoed the sentiments of Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, who said, “We must not backpedal on free trade, as it has contributed to economic prosperity.”

European officials complained that the U.S. meaning of “fair trade” remained unclear and that the only way to establish fairness was to abide by the multilateral framework developed by the World Trade Organization.

A senior Japanese Finance Ministry official said the most significant question pertained to Trump’s U.S. tax cut proposal that could fuel America’s economic recovery.

Trump has proposed slashing the U.S. corporate income tax rate and offer multinational businesses a steep tax break on overseas profits brought back to the U.S.

The G-7 is composed of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S.
…

Мінімальний страховий стаж для отримання пенсій українцям буде збільшено із 15 до 25 років у рамках пенсійної реформи, сказав в ефірі «112 Україна» прем’єр-міністр Володимир Гройсман.

«Ми вважаємо, що до 25 років це буде абсолютно оптимальний стаж, який притаманний більшості українських громадян», – заявив прем’єр.

При цьому, наголосив він, підвищення пенсійного віку наразі не планується.

Загалом, як зазначив Гройсман, він сподівається представити проект пенсійної реформи до кінця травня, а з 1 жовтня він обіцяє, що понад 5 мільйонів українських пенсіонерів отримуватимуть підвищену пенсію.

Пенсійна реформа є одним із ключових пунктів меморандуму про співпрацю між Україною та Міжнародним валютним фондом. 18 квітня голова місії МВФ в Україні Рон ван Роден наголосив, що пенсійна реформа потрібна Україні терміново.

Раніше прем’єр-міністр України Володимир Гройсман повідомив, що пенсійна реформа передбачає підвищення пенсій для 9 мільйонів пенсіонерів з 12 мільйонів. За його словами, уряд має намір забезпечити оновлення пенсій від 200 гривень до тисячі гривень на місяць для понад 5 мільйонів пенсіонерів.

Тим часом, як повідомив в ефірі Радіо Свобода міністр соціальної політики Андрій Рева, найбільше зростання пенсій стосуватиметься тих, хто отримує пенсію вже давно.

У 2016 році держава продотувала Пенсійний фонд на понад 140 мільярдів гривень.
…