«Несвоєчасне інформування Оператора несе потенційні ризики для штатної роботи української ГТС»
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Zimbabwe’s central bank has introduced gold coins that it hopes will ease citizens’ demands for foreign currency. But economists and ordinary Zimbabweans are skeptical.

At the official launch of the gold coins in Harare on Monday, John Mangudya, head of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, said the coins are designed to reduce demand for U.S. dollars in the country.

Zimbabweans are largely shunning the weak local dollar in favor of U.S. greenbacks, which Zimbabweans see as more acceptable abroad and better at holding their value long term.

Mangudya said he hoped that Zimbabweans will now opt for the gold coins, which cost about $1,800 each.

“We are now providing that store of value to ensure that people do not run to the parallel market in search for foreign currency to store value,” he said. “And there is no other better product that can be used to store value other than gold.”

Mangudya said the coin is a sign of respect for the people of Zimbabwe.

“We know what you have been going through in terms of the fear factor of losing value and therefore we are providing this gold coin,” he said. It’s a genuine gold coin to ensure that it is saved and invested there.”

Mangudya said 2,000 coins will be manufactured, with future production depending on the public’s appetite.

Prosper Chitambara, a senior researcher and economist at the Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe, said despite the bank’s hopes he doubts the coins will drastically reduce demand for American dollars.

“Even the demand for U.S. dollar as a store of value, it will also rise because there are still a lot of uncertainties relating to the convertibility of these gold coins — are [they] internationally tradeable, especially given the trust and confidence issues?” Chitambara said.

Chitambra also expressed caution about the coin.

“Most people may not have money to buy this since most citizens are literally living from hand to mouth,” Chitambara said.

One of those Zimbabweans struggling to get by is Christine Kayumba, a high school teacher in Harare.

“The issue of gold coins to us teachers in Zimbabwe, is something we can dream of,” Kayumba said. “It means a teacher who is getting a salary of $190 to $200 would need nine to 10 months to buy one gold coin.”

For Kayumba, that $200 of salary pays for transport, food, rent and money to send children to school. It’s money to live, she said, not to buy a gold coin.

“So, I believe the gold coins were meant for the rich people, not the ordinary teacher or any civil servant in Zimbabwe,” she said.

Mangudya told reporters Monday that gold coins of lesser value would be minted in future to cater for people who have fewer resources.
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Напередодні російські ЗМІ заявили про «закільцювання» кримської енергомережі з мережею на новоокупованих територіях України
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German business morale fell more than expected in July, the Ifo business sentiment survey showed on Monday, as the institute that compiles it said high energy prices and looming gas shortages had left Europe’s largest economy on the cusp of recession.

The Ifo institute’s closely watched business climate index dropped to 88.6, its lowest in more than two years and below the 90.2 forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. June’s reading was marginally revised down to 92.2.

“Recession is knocking on the door. That can no longer be ruled out,” said Ifo surveys head Klaus Wohlrabe.

Germany faces the threat of gas rationing unprecedented in generations this winter following a significant drop in supplies from Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, the West accuses of weaponizing energy in response to sanctions levied against him over the war in Ukraine.

Russia says it is conducting a “special military operation” there to fight nationalists.

Russia this month shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies Germany with gas via the bed of the Baltic Sea for 10 days of maintenance that some feared would be extended.

Pumping resumed on Thursday, but at only 40% of capacity.

Wohlrabe told Reuters in an interview that if German gas deliveries continued at that level “there will be no recession.”

However, Germany’s gas network regulator said on Friday that, if gas through the pipeline continued to be pumped at only 40%, the country would need to take “additional measures” to reach the 90% of storage capacity set as a target to avert winter rationing.

The government has said it would prioritize residents over the corporate sector in the event of rationing, and Monday’s Ifo index, which surveys about 9,000 firms, showed expectations for business to significantly worsen in the coming months.

“The Ifo business climate index, like the purchasing managers’ index, now clearly points to a downturn in the German economy,” said Commerzbank economic analyst Jorge Kraemer.

“How bad it ends up unfortunately lies mainly in Putin hands.”

S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PM) for German services and its index for manufacturing both fell to 49.2 in July, data showed on Friday, below analyst forecasts for them to hold above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession.

Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and threatened by higher interest rates. The data will cover sales of new homes, consumer confidence, incomes, spending, inflation, and overall output.

The highest-profile report will likely be Thursday, when the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of the economy’s output in the April-June quarter. Some economists forecast it may show a contraction for the second quarter in a row. The economy shrank 1.6% in the January-March quarter. Two straight negative readings is considered an informal definition of a recession, though in this case economists think that’s misleading.

Instead, the National Bureau of Economic Research — a nonprofit group of economists — defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

Yellen argued that much of the economy remains healthy: Consumer spending is growing, Americans’ finances, on average, are solid, and the economy has added more than 400,000 jobs a month this year, a robust figure. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, near a half-century low.

“We’ve got a very strong labor market,” Yellen said. “This is not an economy that’s in recession.”

Still, Yellen acknowledged the economy is “in a period of transition in which growth is slowing,” from a historically rapid pace in 2021.

She said that slowdown is “necessary and appropriate,” because “we need to be growing at a steady and sustainable pace.”

Slower growth could help bring down inflation, which at 9.1% is the highest in two generations.

Still, many economists think a recession is on the horizon, with inflation eating away at Americans’ ability to spend and the Federal Reserve rapidly pushing up borrowing costs. Last week, Bank of America’s economists became the latest to forecast a “mild recession” later this year.

And Larry Summers, the treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, said on CNN’s “GPS” Sunday that “there’s a very high likelihood of recession,” as the Fed lifts interest rates to combat inflation. Those higher borrowing costs are intended to reduce consumer spending on homes and cars and slow business borrowing, which can lead to a downturn.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is likely to announce its second 0.75% point increase in its short-term rate in a row, a hefty increase that it hasn’t otherwise implemented since 1994. That will put the Fed’s benchmark rate in a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the highest level since 2018. Fed policymakers are expected to keep hiking until its rate reaches about 3.5%, which would be the highest since 2008.

The Fed’s hikes have torpedoed the housing market, as mortgage rates have doubled in the past year to 5.5%. Sales of existing homes have fallen for five straight months. On Tuesday, the government is expected to report that sales of new homes dropped in June.

Fewer home sales also means less spending on items that typically come with purchasing a new house, such as furniture, appliances, curtains, and kitchenware.

Many other countries are also grappling with higher inflation, and slower growth overseas could weaken the U.S. economy. Europe is facing the threat of recession, with soaring inflation and a central bank that just last week raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also sought to minimize recession concerns in a news conference last Thursday.

“Under the baseline scenario, there is no recession, neither this year nor next year,” Lagarde said. “Is the horizon clouded? Of course it is.”
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Police in Madagascar detained two leading members of the main opposition party on Saturday during a protest in the capital against rising living costs and economic hardship.

Several hundred anti-government demonstrators gathered in the center of Antananarivo in the morning, watched by a heavy military and police presence.

Police said they arrested Rina Randriamasinoro, the secretary general of the opposition Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) party, and its national coordinator Jean-Claude Rakotonirina following tensions between demonstrators and security forces. The pair were later released.

“They were arrested and placed in police custody because they made comments inciting hatred and public unrest,” Antananarivo’s prefect Angelo Ravelonarivo told AFP.

Inflation has soared to the highest level in decades in many countries, fueled by the war in Ukraine and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

Organizers had wanted to hold the rally inside a warehouse belonging to opposition leader Marc Ravalomanana, but demonstrators arrived to find security forces blocking access to the venue.

Protesters then staged a sit-in outside the building.

Footage shared on social media showed police pulling Randriamasinoro and Rakotonirina from the crowd before taking them away in a police vehicle.

“The rally was authorized yesterday by the prefect and then this morning we discovered the police outside the gate,” said opposition lawmaker Fetra Ralambozafimbololona.

The arrests sparked further remonstrations, with demonstrators vowing not to leave the area until the two men were released — before eventually dispersing in the afternoon.

Randriamasinoro and Rakotonirina were eventually let go early in the evening, a police spokesperson said, adding authorities were yet to decide whether to press charges against them.

Protests are rare in the country with the opposition and rights groups accusing the government of President Andry Rajoelina of stifling dissent and rarely allowing demonstrations.

“We can’t say anything anymore,” said Samuel Ravelarison, a 63-year-old accountant attending the rally. “We came to demonstrate against the high cost of living.”

Ravelonarivo, the prefect, said that while the demonstration had not been banned, he had suggested it be held at a different location away from the city center.

One of the poorest nations in the world, Madagascar is still reeling from the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic and a series of extreme weather events.

Tropical storms and cyclones have battered the country this year, killing more than 200 people, adding to the damage of a severe drought that has ravaged the island’s south leading to malnutrition and instances of famine.

Rajoelina, 48, first came to power in 2009, ousting Ravalomanana with the backing of the military.

He returned to the presidency in 2019, after beating his predecessor in an election beset by allegations of fraud.
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As inflation surges around the world, politicians are scrambling for ways to keep food affordable as people increasingly protest the soaring cost of living. One knee-jerk response has been food export bans aimed at protecting domestic prices and supplies as a growing number of governments in developing nations try to show a nervous public that their needs will be met.

For business owners, the rising cost of cooking ingredients — from oil to chicken — has prompted them to raise prices, with people paying 10% to 20% more at Soki Wu’s food stall in Singapore. For consumers, it has meant paying more for the same or lesser-quality food or curbing certain habits altogether.

In Lebanon, where endemic corruption and political stalemate has crippled the economy, the U.N. World Food Program is increasingly providing people with cash assistance to buy food, particularly after a devastating 2020 port blast that destroyed massive grain silos. Constant power cuts and high fuel prices for generators limit what people can buy because they can’t rely on freezers and refrigerators to store perishables.

Tracy Saliba, a single mother of two and business owner in Beirut, says she used to spend around a quarter of her earnings on food. These days, half her income goes to feeding her family as the currency loses strength amid soaring prices.

“I’m not buying (groceries) like I used to,” Saliba said. “I’m just getting the necessary items and food, like day by day.”

Food prices have risen by nearly 14% this year in emerging markets and by over 7% in advanced economies, according to Capital Economics. In countries where people spend at least a third or more of their incomes on food, any sharp increase in prices can lead to crisis.

Capital Economics forecasts that households in developed markets will spend an extra $7 billion a month on food and beverages this year and much of next year due to inflation.

The pain is being felt unevenly, with 2.3 billion people going severely or moderately hungry last year, according to a global report by the World Food Program and four other U.N. agencies.

Food prices accounted for about 60% of last year’s increase in inflation in the Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of oil-producing Gulf countries. The situation is particularly dire for Sudan, where inflation is expected to hit 245% this year, and Iran, where prices spiked as much as 300% for chicken, eggs and milk in May, sparking panic and scattered protests.

In Somalia, where 2.7 million people cannot meet their daily food requirements and where children are dying of malnutrition, sugar is a source of energy. In May, a kilogram of sugar cost about the equivalent of 72 cents in Mogadishu, the capital. A month later, it had shot up to $1.28 a kilogram.

“In my home, I serve tea (with sugar) three times a day, but from now on, I have to reduce it drastically to only making it when guests arrive,” said Asli Abdulkadir, a Somali housewife and mother of four.

People there are bracing for even higher costs after India announced it would cap sugar exports this year. Even if that doesn’t reduce India’s sugar exports compared with previous years, news of the restriction was enough to cause speculation among traders like Ahmed Farah in Mogadishu.

“The cost of sugar is expected to surge since Somalia counts heavily on the white sugar exported from India and a few brown sugars from Brazil,” he said.

Food export restrictions aimed at protecting domestic supplies and capping inflation is one reason for the rising cost of food.

Food prices had been steadily climbing worldwide because of drought, supply chain issues, and high energy and fertilizer costs. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says food commodity prices were up 23% last year.

Russia’s war in Ukraine further sent the price of wheat and cooking oils up, fueling a global food crisis. There was a breakthrough this week to create safe corridors for Black Sea shipments, but Ukrainian ports have been blocked from exporting these key goods for months and it will take time to get them moving again to vulnerable countries worldwide.

There’s concern that the impact of all these factors will lead more countries to resort to food export bans, which are felt globally. When Indonesia blocked the export of palm oil for a month in April, palm oil prices spiked by at least 200%.

Analysts say food export bans are shortsighted because they have a domino effect of driving up prices.

“I would say that roughly 80% of the bans we see are ill-advised — a kind-of, sort-of gut reaction by certain politicians,” said David Laborde, who is credited with creating a food trade policy tracker at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

“In the world where you will be the only one to do it, that can make sense,” he said. “But in a world where other countries can also do it, actually that’s far from being a good idea.”

Laborde said bans are “a very selfish policy … because you try to get better by making things worse for others.”

The list of food export restrictions Laborde has been tracking since the COVID-19 pandemic is long and changes constantly. Examples of their impact include Kazakhstan’s restrictions on grains and oil on prices in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan; Cameroon’s rice export restriction on Chad; and Tunisia’s fruit and vegetable restrictions on Libya.

In Singapore, 29-year-old Wu is hopeful he can keep the family business running as Singapore’s government signed off on Indonesia as a new chicken supplier.

“Things will get better,” he said. “(This) will only make us more resilient.” 
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