One man’s loss may be another’s unfortunate gain, and the Ukraine conflict is proving a boon to some energy-producing nations as oil prices soar.

The war has given an unexpected boost to Norway’s oil revenues and now the country, concerned it will be seen as a war profiteer, is mulling what to do with its sudden windfall.

Fueled by the sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, the surge in oil and natural gas prices could see Norway racking up almost $170 billion in extra oil and gas revenue this year, according to Nordea bank.

Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas exporter and one of the richest countries in the world, Norway could pocket nearly $5,680 more than expected every second of the day without lifting a finger.

But the boon is giving it a guilty conscience.

“There are times when it’s not fun to make money, and this is one of them, given the situation,” said Petroleum and Energy Minister Terje Aasland in an interview with television channel TV2.

Most of Norway’s oil revenue ends up in the state’s coffers, through taxes, dividends and direct holdings in oil and gas fields, which it then places in its sovereign wealth fund, already the world’s biggest.

The fund has suffered from the global stock market falls in recent weeks but is still worth around $227,000 for each of Norway’s 5.4 million inhabitants.

“Norway cannot escape the unpleasant fact: This is a form of war profit,” the daily Dagbladet wrote in an editorial.

“While Ukraine is being destroyed, and most other countries are mainly feeling the negative effects of the war, such as higher energy prices, higher food prices and general inflation, we are making a gain,” it said.

“This must be reflected in the way we think about the use of money,” it added.

Multiuse Marshall Plan?

Many want to see a redistribution of all or part of the war gains.

Norway’s Green Party has called for the billions of additional petrodollars to be placed in a solidarity fund to be used as a sort of Marshall Plan for various needs.

It could be used to finance both humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of Ukraine, help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian gas and help the poorest countries counter soaring costs for energy and food, the party suggested.

“The extra oil revenue from the war should go to Ukraine, not us,” it said.

The center-left government has so far pledged up to $227 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

‘Display leadership’

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store has insisted that Norway can help most by supplying as much gas as possible to Europe to help reduce its dependency on Russia.

Norway covers between 20% and 25% of the European Union’s and Britain’s needs via a vast network of gas pipelines, compared with between 45% and 50% for Russia.

European Climate Pact ambassador Paal Frisvold meanwhile suggested that Norway should forgo the profits and cap the price of gas sold to European countries, which are just emerging from the pandemic, some with heavy debts.

“Our profits are the invoices of others,” he told AFP.

“The most important thing is to show solidarity, to display leadership at a historic moment. My kids are going to ask me, ‘Dad, what did Norway do during the Ukraine war?’ I don’t want to tell them that we made a killing,” he said.

Norway’s government, which is currently drawing up its spring budget, said there was currently no plan for such a cap.
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Reports of counterfeit banknotes circulating in Myanmar have skyrocketed in recent weeks amid the junta’s mismanagement of the economy, but experts say the military regime is ill-equipped to address the problem because officials “only know how to give orders” but not implement them.

Since February, a growing number of posts have appeared on social media allegedly documenting fake high-denomination bills involved in public cash transactions, while offers for counterfeit kyats are commonly advertised online or papered on walls at bus terminals in cities and towns across the country.

Earlier this week, Facebook user “Rose Angle” posted a video in which he complained about a growing number of fake kyats and provided a demonstration of how the dye could be washed off one he claimed to have obtained simply by holding it under a running faucet. The post received several responses by users who included photos of what they claimed were counterfeit bills they had received in cash transactions.

RFA’s Myanmar Service spoke with sources in the business and banking communities, as well as other members of the public, who said they had personally dealt with fake currency and described the problem as increasingly severe.

A salesperson based in the seat of Bago region’s Pyay township told RFA that he was recently made to cover his company’s loss after he accepted counterfeit banknotes in one cash transaction.

“We didn’t realize it at first, but when we brought the notes to the bank, they determined that some of them were counterfeits,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“When such fake notes are discovered, we must pay from our own pockets and it’s not easy to do that when there are two or three 10,000-kyat counterfeit notes. It hurts a lot. Thirty thousand kyats [$17] is a lot for us.”

The salesperson said a similar incident occurred in mid-February and that he had discovered counterfeit currency twice that month. He now regularly examines the watermarks and thickness of all bills during cash transactions but noted that spotting fakes is difficult for average people who lack the tools to detect them.

Soe Tun, a businessman in the commercial capital Yangon, told RFA he had been forced to obtain a counterfeit bill detector because of the increase in fake bills in circulation.

“We have to be very careful these days as counterfeits are now more common than ever before,” he said, suggesting the problem had worsened since the junta seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup, sending the economy into a freefall.

“For money changers, there are machines to detect these counterfeit notes, but they aren’t accessible to ordinary people. Otherwise, your best option is to deal with payments through bank accounts, particularly if there is a large amount of money involved.”

Other sources noted a proliferation of advertisements in recent weeks offering 1 million kyats [$560] worth of counterfeit bills for as little as 100,000 kyats [$56], which they said had exacerbated the problem.

Investigation under way

Aung Kyaw Than, the junta’s director general of the Central Bank’s financial management department, told RFA that efforts are being made to crack down on the sale of counterfeit notes online.

But he said that reports of such services are overblown.

“These are likely rumors, as I haven’t seen such sales being made,” he said, adding that the junta’s Ministry of Home Affairs “is investigating the matter to take proper action.”

Junta Deputy Information Minister Zaw Min Tun outright dismissed concerns over the reports of counterfeiting.

“We have discovered some counterfeit notes, but it wasn’t a lot,” he said, adding that the fakes “were not of high quality.”

“We’re also watching what’s happening on social media and trying to find out the source of the reports. We have found that [offers of counterfeit bills] weren’t being acted on. I just want to say that there’s no need to worry about this problem.”

The junta comments follow media reports citing an official announcement in January which said a police raid on counterfeit bill producers in Karen state’s Myawaddy township had nabbed more than 1,700 fake 10,000-kyat denomination bills along with uncut sheets of paper used to print currency.

Economist Zaw Pe Win said the problem will continue if the junta fails to put systematic controls in place.

“The problem with the military is that it only knows how to give orders, but it offers no systematic or technical policy for how to implement them. The junta just tries to fix problems however it sees fit,” he said.

“If the military doesn’t change that approach, things won’t get any better. Criminals will produce counterfeits, if given a chance, and they will be distributed to the public. Unless the junta can find an effective way to stop this, the situation will become worse.”

Zaw Pe Win said that the junta’s violent repression of anti-coup protests had destroyed investor confidence in Myanmar and the resulting economic turmoil, but ordinary people are the ones suffering the consequences.

He said the military must normalize foreign trade relations and provide stability if it hopes to repair the economy but has so far been unable or unwilling to do so.

Meanwhile, the proliferation of counterfeit notes has only added to the anxiety of a population already grappling with a rapidly depreciating kyat, rising commodity prices, and worsening food shortages in the wake of the coup.
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Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as layoffs continue to fall amid a strong job market rebound.

Jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 214,000 for the week ending March 12, down from the previous week’s 229,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time applications for jobless aid generally track the pace of layoffs.

The four-week average for claims, which compensates for weekly volatility, fell to 223,000 from the previous week’s 231,750.

In total, 1,419,000 Americans — a 50-year low — were collecting jobless aid the week that ended March 5, down 71,000 from the week before that.

Earlier this month, the government reported that employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4% in January, extending a sharp decline in joblessness to its lowest level since before the pandemic erupted two years ago.

U.S. businesses posted a near-record level of open jobs in January — 11.3 million — a trend has helped pad workers’ pay and added to inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve launched a high-risk effort Wednesday to tame the worst inflation since the early 1980s, raising its benchmark short-term interest rate and signaling up to six additional rate hikes this year.

The Fed’s quarter-point hike in its key rate, which it had pinned near zero since the pandemic recession struck two years ago, marks the start of its effort to curb the high inflation that followed the recovery from the recession. The rate hikes will eventually mean higher loan rates for many consumers and businesses.

The central bank’s policymakers expect inflation to remain elevated, ending 2022 at 4.3%, according to quarterly projections they released Wednesday.

Last week, the government reported that consumer inflation jumped 7.9% over the past year, the sharpest spike since 1982.

 
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Через накладені на Росію обмеження її валютні рахунки були заморожені
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The U.S. Federal Reserve launched a high-risk effort Wednesday to tame the worst inflation since the early 1980s, raising its benchmark short-term interest rate and signaling up to six additional rate increases this year. 

The Fed’s quarter-point hike in its key rate, which had been pinned near zero since the pandemic recession struck two years ago, marks the start of its effort to curb the high inflation that followed the recovery from the recession. The rate hikes will eventually mean higher loan rates for many consumers and businesses. 

The central bank, in a policy statement, along with quarterly projections and remarks by Chair Jerome Powell at a news conference, pointed to a somewhat more aggressive approach to rate hikes than many analysts had expected. 

The projections showed that seven of the central bank’s 16 policymakers favor at least one half-point rate hike this year, suggesting that such a large increase is possible, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. 

At his news conference, Powell stressed his confidence that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. But he also made clear that the Fed is focused on doing whatever it takes to reduce inflation, over time, to its 2% annual target. Otherwise, Powell warned, the economy might not sustain its recovery from the pandemic recession. 

“We’re acutely aware of the need to restore price stability,” the Fed chair said. “In fact, it’s a precondition for achieving the kind of labor market that we want. You can’t have maximum employment for any sustained period without price stability.” 

Quarterly projections  

The Fed also released a set of quarterly economic projections Wednesday that underscored the potential for extended interest rate increases in the months ahead. Seven hikes would raise its short-term rate to between 1.75% and 2% at the end of 2022. Fed officials also forecast four more rate increases in 2023, which would boost its benchmark rate to 2.8%. 

That would be the highest level since March 2008. Borrowing costs for mortgage loans, credit cards and auto loans will likely rise as a result. 

“Clearly, inflation has moved front and center into the Fed’s thinking,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. 

The central bank’s policymakers expect inflation to remain elevated, ending 2022 at 4.3%, according to quarterly projections they released Wednesday. The officials also forecast a much slower economic growth of 2.8% this year, down from a 4% estimate in December. 

But many economists worry that with inflation already so high — it reached 7.9% in February, the worst in four decades — and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving up gas prices, the Fed may have to raise rates even higher than it now expects and potentially cause a recession. 

By its own admission, the central bank underestimated the breadth and persistence of high inflation after the pandemic struck. And many economists say the Fed has made its task riskier by waiting too long to begin raising rates. 

The Fed’s projections show that by the end of next year, the policymakers expect their short-term rate to be above “neutral” — the level at which they think the rate neither fuels nor slows economic growth. 

Roberto Perli, an economist at Piper Sandler, questioned Powell’s assurances that the economy could withstand such higher rates. 

“In the past, whenever the Fed has approached — let alone exceeded — neutral, the economy weakened sharply,” Perli wrote in a note to clients. “The risk of recession in 2023 and beyond is increasing.” 

Powell’s predictions 

Yet Powell downplayed the likelihood of an economic setback. 

“The probability of a recession in the next year is not particularly elevated,” he said. 

At his news conference, Powell said he believed that inflation would slow later this year as supply chain bottlenecks clear and more Americans return to the job market, easing upward pressure on wages. 

He also suggested that over time, the Fed’s higher rates will reduce consumer spending on interest rate-sensitive items such as autos and cars. Americans may also buy less as credit card rates increase. Those trends would eventually reduce businesses’ demand for workers and slow pay raises, which are running at a robust 6% annual rate, and ease inflation pressures. 

Powell noted that there are a near-record number of job openings, leaving 1.7 available jobs, on average, for every unemployed person. As a result, he expressed confidence that the Fed can lower demand for workers and wage growth without increasing unemployment. 

“All signs are that this is a strong economy,” he said, “one that will be able to flourish in the face of less accommodative monetary policy.” 

The Fed’s forecast for numerous additional rate hikes in the coming months initially disrupted a strong rally on Wall Street, weakening stock gains and sending bond yields up. But stock prices more than recovered their gains soon after the press conference began. 

Most economists say that sharply higher rates are long overdue to combat the escalation of inflation across the economy. 

“With the unemployment rate below 4%, inflation nearing 8%, and the war in Ukraine likely to put even more upward pressure on prices, this is what the Fed needs to do to bring inflation under control,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

Powell is steering the Fed into a sharp U-turn. Officials had kept rates ultra-low to support growth and hiring during the recession and its aftermath. As recently as December, Fed officials had expected to raise rates just three times this year. 

One member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, James Bullard, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, dissented from Wednesday’s decision. Bullard favored a half-point rate hike, a position he has advocated in interviews and speeches. 

The Fed also said it would begin to reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled in size during the pandemic, “at a coming meeting.” That step will also have the effect of tightening credit for many consumers and businesses. 

Since its last meeting in January, the challenges and uncertainties for the Fed have escalated. Russia’s invasion has magnified the cost of oil, gas, wheat and other commodities. China has closed ports and factories again to contain a new outbreak of COVID-19, which will worsen supply chain disruptions and likely further fuel price pressures. 

In the meantime, the sharp rise in average gas prices since the invasion, up more than 60 cents to $4.31 a gallon nationally, will send inflation higher while also probably slowing growth — two conflicting trends that are notoriously difficult for the Fed to manage simultaneously. 

 
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Банк дозволяє громадянам РФ відкривати мультивалютний рахунок, який дає доступ до карток систем Visa/Mastercard
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Traditional Kashmiri carpet weavers are turning to a 21st century technology already embraced by French winemakers and other international purveyors to boost sales by reassuring buyers that they are buying authentic made-in-Kashmir carpets, not cheap imitations.

The technology, used to authenticate wine from Cabo Verde, watches made in Switzerland, Bashkir honey from Russia and Tushuri Guda cheese from Georgia, combines a digital QR code with geo-locational features to guarantee to buyers that a carpet was actually woven in Kashmir.

Carpets from the region are ranked among the finest in the world because of the fineness of the weaving and the quality of the wool and silk yarn.

Mahmood Ahmad Shah, director of Handloom & Handicrafts in Kashmir, says this is the first time the region’s pashmina or Kashmir silk carpets have received QR code-based geographical indications.

With QR code tagging, Shah expects to attract more clients, benefiting local artisans in Indian-administered Kashmir.

“We are optimistic that it would give boost to the $40 million [export] business and would benefit 54,000 artisans registered with the Department of Handloom & Handicrafts in Kashmir,” he told VOA.

The origin of Kashmir’s hand-knotted carpets, locally called as “Kalbaffi,” dates back to the 15th century. Sultan Zain-ul-Abidinis is believed to have sent Persian and Central Asian carpet weavers to Kashmir to teach the locals.

But Shah said the widespread sale of misbranded Kashmiri carpets has eroded trust among the consumers and led to the marginalization of local weavers such as Nissar Ahmad, a 50-year-old weaver from the outskirts of Srinagar who told VOA he works from 9:30 a.m. until 5 p.m. earning the equivalent of just $4.15.

“I have been into carpet weaving for over 35 years and at this age I can’t shift to any other economic activity to earn my living. With this earning, it is hard to manage daily expenses,” he said.

Shah said the certification will help the industry to regain customer trust, leading to a better life for the artisans.

From Gruyère cheese to Tequila, appellations of origin are jealously guarded by local growers and makers, especially in industries in which the quality of the product is directly linked to the place where it was made or grown. Many agricultural products, for example, are impacted by factors such as the climate and quality of soil.

The Srinagar-based Indian Institute of Carpet Technology (IICT) started labeling the Kashmiri carpets earlier this month, embedding such factors into the QR codes as the identity of the weaver, district, raw material, size, knots per square inch, pile height, quality and whether the weaver is an authorized GI user.

That information is readable on digital devices including smart phones, marking the first time the technology has been used in India. “Every piece of information you could ever want to know about a piece of carpet may be found in its QR code,” said Zubair Ahmad, director of the IICT.

Customers who are unable to scan the barcode can verify the product’s legitimacy by typing an alphanumeric code found on the label into a web browser. Ahmad said the label also bears certain information that can be read with infrared equipment, and which cannot be reproduced or damaged.

In order to participate in the program, artisans and manufacturers needs to register with the Indian federal government’s office of the Controller General of Patents, Designs & Trade Marks. According to the Geographical Indications Registry of India, so far there are 25 authorized users in Kashmir.

Shah said the government will be able to map the movement of each carpet in order to better evaluate the international market.

“When a customer scans the QR-tag through a smart phone fixed on the carpet, the department through block-chain technology will be able to trace the geographic location of the carpet and assess the demand from the various countries and will accordingly formulate market strategy.”

The institute has already received hundreds of carpets for labeling and expects the process to standardize the quality of hand knotted carpets. Shah hopes that will lead to Kashmiri carpets being valued on a par for price and quality with the best Iranian and Turkish hand knotted carpets.

A geographical indication can also highlight a product’s human-made attributes, such as manufacturing skills and traditions. The quality of handicrafts often depends on local natural resources and techniques handed down from one generation to the next.
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«Цей крок дасть Україні можливість отримувати електроенергію, якщо агресор продовжить нищити нашу енергетичну інфраструктуру», заявив голова «Укренерго»
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До пакету входить, зокрема, надання 800 переносних зенітно-ракетних комплексів «Стінгер»
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