«Новатек», є приватною компанією, і «туди навряд чи може бути пряме доручення» – Пєсков
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«Група семи» закликала країни-виробники нафти та газу «діяти відповідально» та нарощувати постачання на міжнародний ринок
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Міністр закордонних справ України Дмитро Кулеба закликав європейські країни не виконувати вимог Москви і не платити за російські нафту й газ у рублях
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U.N. economists warn prospects for global growth this year are rapidly fading as the adverse impact of the war in Ukraine kicks in.

The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD, has downgraded a previous more optimistic projection of the world economy to reflect the new reality.

UNCTAD’S updated trade and development report estimates global economic growth will decrease to 2.6% from 3.6% in 2022. It said the main factor behind the significant downgrade is the great uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine.

The report said the extent of military destruction, the duration of the war and sanctions against the Russian Federation will compound the ongoing economic slowdown globally and weaken the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It said Russia will experience a deep recession this year.

Director of UNCTAD’s division on globalization and development strategies, Richard Kozul-Wright, said the war likely will increase geopolitical tensions, determine national monetary policies, add to inflationary pressures and hike fuel and commodity prices. He said all regions of the global economy will be adversely affected by the crisis, some more than others.

European Union faces downgrade

“The European Union will see a fairly significant downgrade in its growth performance this year, but so will parts of central and southern Asia as well,” Kozul-Wright said. “… And countries that might not see a very significant downgrade in their growth performance, such as sub-Saharan Africa, are particularly vulnerable to some of the commodity price hikes that we see in those countries that are very large food importers, particularly wheat.”

Kozul-Wright said the very large level of external debt facing developing countries is of particular concern. The report projects developing countries will require $310 billion to service their external public debt this year.

“Partly as a consequence of the additional debt that was acquired during the COVID-19 shock … developing countries still cannot get the necessary fiscal support from the multilateral financial institutions that they need to be able to respond to unanticipated economic shocks,” Kozul-Wright said.

U.N. economists said measures to help developing countries cope with the crisis must be strengthened. They said there must be a more rigorous, serious, effective attempt to restructure their external debt so they can get back to a reasonable growth path.

 
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The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in 52 years as the U.S. job market continues to show strength in the midst of rising costs and an ongoing virus pandemic.

Jobless claims fell by 28,000 to 187,000 for the week ending March 19, the lowest since September of 1969, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time applications for jobless aid generally track the pace of layoffs.

The four-week average for claims, which compensates for weekly volatility, also fell to levels not seen in five decades. The Labor Department reported that the four week moving average tumbled to 211,750 from the previous week’s 223,250.

In total, 1,350,000 Americans were collecting jobless aid the week that ended March 12, another five-decade low.

Earlier this month, the government reported that employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4% in January, extending a sharp decline in joblessness to its lowest level since before the pandemic erupted two years ago.

U.S. businesses posted a near-record level of open jobs in January — 11.3 million — a trend has helped pad workers’ pay and added to inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve launched a high-risk effort last week to tame the worst inflation since the early 1980s, raising its benchmark short-term interest rate and signaling up to six additional rate hikes this year.

The central bank’s policymakers have projected that inflation will remain elevated, ending 2022 at 4.3%.

Earlier this month, the government reported that consumer inflation jumped 7.9% over the past year, the sharpest spike since 1982.
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Kenya’s tea and flower exporters say global sanctions to punish Russia for invading Ukraine have halted millions of dollars of Kenyan trade with Russian importers. While they hope for peace, Kenyan traders are looking for alternative buyers. Victoria Amunga reports from Kajiado, Kenya.
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Про те, що російські військові обстрілюють залізничне полотно в Україні повідомлялося і раніше
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Із 12 березня Рада ЄС ухвалила рішення відключити сім російських банків від фінансової системи SWIFT. Це банки «Открытие», «Новикомбанк», «Промсвязьбанк», Банк «Россия», «Совкомбанк», ВЭБ и ВТБ
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The world is feeling the effects of the war in Ukraine from the gas pump all the way to the dinner table.

Food prices are climbing just about everywhere, raising the risk of civil unrest, especially in countries dependent on imported wheat from Russia and Ukraine. That includes much of the Middle East and North Africa.

Experts say the food price increases are happening at an especially bad time.

“It’s kind of a perfect storm,” said Cornell University economics professor Chris Barrett. “It’s not just a matter of, food prices are going high. It’s food prices are going high at a moment when many places are already crippled by the challenges posed by COVID, by political disruptions elsewhere, by droughts and floods and other natural disasters.”

“And there’s only so much that people can take before they grow displeased with their political leadership if it’s failing to take care of them,” he added. “So, unrest is, unfortunately, increasingly likely right now.”

Conflict worsens inflation

Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Ukraine is number five. Together, they grow up to a third of the world’s wheat exports.

But when war broke out, the Black Sea became a combat zone. Some cargo ships took fire. It didn’t take sanctions to cut off exports.

“There wasn’t a ban on grain trade, but in effect the ports were closed. And so shipment has stopped,” said Texas A&M University economist Mark Welch.

“Countries that import from Ukraine and Russia have suddenly found their contracts canceled and they’re not getting food shipments they were expecting, which forces them into the market to pay a premium to replace food shipments that just aren’t going to arrive,” Barrett said. “And that bids up the price of food around the world.”

But food prices have been rising for almost two years.

Bad weather cut harvests in some of the world’s breadbaskets. Reserves are low.

That’s helped push prices to record highs even before the conflict started.

“We’ve tipped over that edge where every change, every little thing, has a very large impact,” University of Illinois economist Joe Janzen said.

More problems coming

Now, Ukraine’s next harvest is in doubt. Farmers should be getting ready for the next growing season. But that’s hard to do right now.

“Logistical lines are obviously heavily disrupted right now,” Barrett said. “Seeds aren’t arriving. Fuel isn’t arriving. Fertilizer isn’t arriving.”

Russia’s farmers are getting hit, too. They’re not under sanctions. But Russia’s banks are. That basically shuts Russian farmers out of the financial system.

“We’re not going to say, ‘You can’t ship grain,'” Welch said. “But will they ship it if they can’t get paid?”

Then there’s the sharp increase in energy prices that makes shipping everything more expensive.

Also, natural gas is a main ingredient in fertilizers commonly used to boost grain yields. So fertilizer costs more to make.

“Fertilizer prices last year were already quite high. They had come down somewhat in the last few months and now are very high again,” Janzen said, “in part because Russia and its ally Belarus are major fertilizer exporters.”

And Russia and Belarus are both under sanctions for the Ukraine invasion.

But those are problems for the next crop. People in parts of the Middle East and North Africa are feeling the effects now.

Fragile situations

“Yemen is a good case in point,” Barrett said. “There’s not a lot of wheat being grown in Yemen. They depend entirely upon wheat imports, and that requires transportation to get there.”

“The spike in global wheat prices plus the spike in global oil prices mean that prices for flour and for bread products in Yemen are already increasing significantly in a place where people really can’t afford to face an even higher cost of feeding their family basic daily rations,” he added.

In 2011, rising bread prices were one of the factors that set off the Arab Spring protests. When people already have grievances with their government, food inflation can tip them over the edge. A lot of places fit that description, according to U.N. World Food Program Chief Economist Arif Husain.

“If you look at Yemen, if you look at Lebanon, if you look at Syria, if you look at South Sudan, if you look at Ethiopia, and I can keep going,” Husain said in an interview with The Associated Press. “These countries are already in trouble because of conflicts.”

On the plus side, spring planting hasn’t started yet in some big wheat-growing countries. Farmers will probably switch some land where they planned to grow corn or soybeans to planting wheat. That should eventually bring the price down.

“That seems to be the main way that these crises are inevitably resolved is by production somewhere else in the world responding,” Janzen said. “We are fortunate that we have a global food system. We have the ability to produce and consume commodities like wheat all around the world.”

It will be months before the markets have a sense of how big the new crop will be, however. Those will be nail-biting months of watching the weather. Experts say, be ready for a wild ride.
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