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Americans returned to stores for the “Black Friday” kickoff of the holiday shopping season, but online data shows that consumers have been spending big for weeks amid worries over shortages.

The day after the U.S. Thanksgiving celebration is the traditional start to the holiday shopping season, and normally sees Americans line up outside stores before they open to clinch deals on popular items.

After the pandemic kept crowds away last year, many shoppers were out in force Friday, a sign of how COVID-19 vaccines have returned life in the United States to something closer to normal.

“I just wanted to make sure that this Christmas was a good Christmas for all my friends and family,” said a masked Sylvia Gonzalez as she waited in line outside the jewelry chain Pandora in New York.

But even before retailers opened their doors early Friday morning, e-commerce shoppers in the United States had already spent $76 billion since early November, up more than 20% from the year-ago period, according to data from software company Adobe, which has projected somewhat fewer promotions this year in light of rising costs.

The jump has added to companies’ optimism about the season, suggesting some shoppers heeded calls from businesses to purchase items early this year after port backlogs and other logistics problems sparked worries that popular goods would be in short supply.

Toys led the buying spree, with Adobe pointing to actions by “anxious parents increasingly aware of supply chain challenges.”

The National Retail Federation projects overall spending could rise as much as 10.5% to $859 billion.

Nonetheless, out-of-stock listings online are up 261% compared with two years ago, according to Adobe.

Item in hand

Retailers and market watchers are broadly optimistic about the holiday shopping season in light of low unemployment and relatively strong household finances due in part to pandemic stimulus bills enacted by the government.

Countering those positive trends are lingering supply chain problems, spiking consumer prices that have affected household staples such as food and fuel, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still far from over.

On Friday, stock markets worldwide tumbled on worries that the latest strain of the virus found in South Africa could derail the global recovery.

Reminders of the pandemic were visible throughout shopping districts in the New York borough of Manhattan.

Signs at Macy’s reminded customers to keep 2 meters apart, and pop-up COVID-19 testing sites were positioned outside stores where mostly masked crowds were large, but not as sizeable as before the pandemic.

“In 2018, it was more like the New York you heard of,” said German tourist Ilke Zienteck. “Now, it’s a little bit like a small town.”

Still, the hum of customers inside shops suggested that many had adjusted to the “new normal” of pandemic living.

There were obvious gaps at some stores. At a Best Buy near Grand Central Station, a shelf of Apple accessories was almost completely empty, while the camera bags section had few remaining offerings.

Other chains like Victoria’s Secret and Foot Locker have acknowledged shortages of some choice products.

Taylor Schreiner, a digital research expert at Adobe, expects more consumers to order online and pay for expedited shipping, or pick up goods at stores.

“It’s not just because people want it quickly,” he said in an interview. “Having the item in hand is the surest way to have the gift for the person.”

January glut?

An emerging worry in the industry is that retailers will be stuck with goods originally intended for the holidays but that don’t arrive until January.

Macy’s is generally canceling orders for items with a Christmas motif but plans to keep other items if they are cold-weather-oriented and could sell later in the winter, executives said earlier this month.

Gap Chief Financial Officer Katrina O’Connell said the apparel chain was planning to hold some items for next winter.

“If we think items are going to be too late for the holiday season, we won’t put them in stores or online and have them generate markdowns,” she said earlier this week on a conference call with Wall Street analysts. “We’ll hold them for next year.”

Gap has been one of the companies hardest hit by supply chain problems due to lengthy factory shutdowns in Vietnam caused by the country’s COVID-19 restrictions, which contributed to a loss of some $300 million in sales in the most recent quarter. 

 
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Stocks sank Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly falling more than 1,000 points, as a new coronavirus variant first detected in South Africa appeared to be spreading across the globe. Investors were uncertain whether the variant could reverse months of progress at getting the COVID-19 pandemic under control.

The S&P 500 index dropped 106.84 points, or 2.3%, to close at 4,594.62. It was the worst day for Wall Street’s benchmark index since February.

The index was dragged lower by banks, travel companies and energy companies as investors tried to reposition to protect themselves financially from the new variant. The World Health Organization called the variant “highly transmissible.” 

The price of oil fell about 13%, the biggest decline since early in the pandemic, amid worries of another slowdown in the global economy. That in turn dragged down energy stocks. Exxon shares fell 3.5% while Chevron fell 2.3%. 

The blue chips closed down 905.04 points to end the day at 34,899.34. The Nasdaq Composite lost 353.57 points, or 2.2%, to 15,491.66. 

Bond yields fall; banks hit

“Investors are likely to shoot first and ask questions later until more is known,” Jeffrey Halley of Oanda said in a report. That was evident from the action in the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.48% from 1.64% on Wednesday. As a result, banks took some of the heaviest losses. JPMorgan Chase dropped 3%. 

There have been other variants of the coronavirus — the delta variant devastated much of the U.S. throughout the summer — and investors, public officials and the general public are jittery about any new variant that’s spreading. It’s been nearly two years since COVID-19 emerged, killing more than 5 million people around the globe so far.

The economic impacts of this variant were already being felt. The European Union and the U.K. both announced travel restrictions from southern Africa on Friday. After the market closed, the U.S. also put travel restrictions on those coming from South Africa as well as seven other African nations.

Airline stocks quickly sold off, with United Airlines dropping 9.6% and American Airlines falling 8.8%. 

“COVID had seemingly been put in the rear-view mirror by financial markets until recently,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “At the least, [the virus] is likely to continue throwing sand in the gears of the global economy in 2022, restraining the recovery [and] keeping kinks in the supply chain.” 

Even Bitcoin got caught up in the selling. The digital currency dropped 8.4% to $54,179, according to CoinDesk.

In Nantucket, Massachusetts, where he is spending a holiday weekend, President Joe Biden said he wasn’t concerned about the market’s decline. 

“They always do when there’s something on COVID [that] arises,” Biden said.

‘Fear gauge’

One sign of Wall Street’s anxiety was the VIX, the market’s measurement of volatility that is sometimes referred to as its “fear gauge.” The VIX jumped 53.6% to a reading of 28.54, its highest reading since January, before the vaccines began to be widely distributed.

Fearful of more lockdowns and travel bans, investors moved money into companies that largely benefited from previous waves, like Zoom Communications for meetings or Peloton for at-home exercise equipment. Shares in both companies rose nearly 6%. 

The coronavirus vaccine manufacturers were among the biggest beneficiaries of the emergence of this new variant and the subsequent investor reaction. Pfizer shares rose more than 6% while Moderna shares jumped more than 20%.

Merck shares fell 3.8%, however. While U.S. health officials said Merck’s experimental treatment of COVID-19 was effective, data showed the pill was not as effective at keeping patients out of the hospital as originally thought. 

Investors are worried that the supply chain issues that have impacted global markets for months will worsen. Ports and freight yards are vulnerable and could be shut by new, localized outbreaks.
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In early October, a ruptured underwater pipeline spilled crude oil in the waters off the Southern California coast. Almost two months later, life in Huntington Beach is back to normal, but residents say the reputation of the tourist city has been damaged and businesses are still hurting. Genia Dulot reports
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Заборону на вʼїзд із Південної Африки вже запровадили щонайменше 10 країн
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Britain’s blue-chip share index slumped Friday, suffering its biggest drop in more than a year as fears over a newly detected and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant gripped stock markets around the world.

The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index closed down 3.7% at its lowest in more than seven weeks, with commodity, travel, and banking stocks leading the sell-off.

Britain said the virus variant spreading in South Africa was considered by scientists to be the most significant one found yet and it needed to ascertain whether it rendered vaccines ineffective.

Tourism group TUI fell almost 10%, while airline companies like Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG lost about 15% after British authorities imposed travel restrictions from South Africa and five neighboring countries.

“We don’t know so much about this variant yet but if it’s serious, it could change the macro scenarios altogether,” said Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Societe Generale.

“The Bank of England will not hike rates in a period where we can enter lockdown and put serious burden on the economy.”

Supply-chain worries and inflationary pressures have kept the FTSE 100 under pressure, with the blue-chip index lagging its European peers so far this year.

Shares of major British lenders HSBC, Lloyds Bank and Barclays all fell almost 5% as investors scaled back expectations for an interest rate hike in December.

“Over the last month, the banking sector has benefited from a steeper yield curve but with the news today we see a lower bond yield and that’s also not quite positive for the long term,” said Kaloyan.

Energy and mining stocks fell 6.3% and 4.4%, respectively, tracking a slump in commodity prices on fresh economic slowdown fears.

The domestically focused mid-cap index dropped 3.0%, faring a bit better than its blue-chip counterpart as online trading platform Plus500 and CMC Markets gained ground.

 
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Global stocks tumbled Friday and oil fell below $80 a barrel after news of a possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant sent investors scurrying to the safety of bonds, the yen and the Swiss franc.

Little is known of the variant, detected in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong, but scientists say it has an unusual combination of mutations, may be able to evade immune responses and could be more transmissible.

British authorities think it is the most significant variant to date and have hurried to impose travel restrictions on southern Africa, as did Japan, the Czech Republic and Italy on Friday. 

The European Union also said it aimed to halt air travel from the region.

“Markets have been quite complacent about the pandemic for a while, partly because economies have been able to withstand the impact of selective lockdown measures. But we can see from the new emergency brakes on air travel that there will be  

ramifications for the price of oil,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa.

The World Health Organization is convening an experts’ meeting later Friday to evaluate whether the new variant is a “variant of concern.”

Global shares fell 0.8% and were on course for their worst week since early October.

European stocks plunged 2.7%, on track for their worst day since September 2020, with travel and leisure stocks particularly badly hit.

Germany’s DAX sank 3% and Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 2.7% to its lowest in more than a month.

MSCI’s index of Asian shares outside Japan fell 2.2%, its sharpest drop since August. 

Casino and beverage shares were hammered in Hong Kong, while travel stocks dropped in Sydney and Tokyo.

Japan’s Nikkei skidded 2.5% and S&P 500 futures were last down 1.8%.

Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, a brokerage, said the closure of the U.S. market for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday had exacerbated moves.

“We need to see how transmissible this variant is, is it able to evade the vaccines – this is crucial,” Coghlan said.

“I expect this story to drag on for a few days until scientists have a better understanding of it.”

Oil prices slid, with U.S. crude futures down 5.7% to $73.96 a barrel and Brent crude down 4.66% to $78.38 amid fresh demand fears.

As investors dashed for safe-haven assets, the yen jumped more than 1% to around 113 per dollar, having languished earlier this week at five-year lows.

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1251, as safety rather than policy differentials drove trade.

The single currency, however, fell to near 6-1/2 year lows against the Swiss franc at 1.044 francs per euro.

“You shoot first and ask questions later when this sort of news erupts,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

South Africa’s rand fell 2% to a one-year low and its 2030 bond yield soared 25.5 basis points (bps).

Bond yields move inversely to price.

Other bond markets strengthened, benefiting from their safe haven status. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 11 bps to 1.5277% and 30-year yields were down 9 bps to

1.8777%. Germany’s 10-year bond yield was down 6.2 bps at -0.31%. Gold rose 0.7% to $1,800 an ounce.

The market swings come against a backdrop of already growing concern about COVID-19 outbreaks driving restrictions on movement and activity in Europe and beyond.

European countries have expanded COVID-19 booster vaccinations and tightened curbs. Slovakia announced a two-week lockdown, the Czech government will shut bars early and Germany crossed the threshold of 100,000 COVID-19-related deaths.

“I don’t think there’s any going back to the pre-COVID-19 world,” said Mark Arnold, chief investment officer at Hyperion Asset Management in Brisbane.

“We’re just going to get mutations through time and that’s going to change the way people operate in the economy. That’s just reality.”
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